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The Paris Agreement, now officially in force and ratified by more than 160 nations, sets a global temperature goal of staying well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while striving to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.1 Signatory nations chose these goals to create a reasonable chance of avoiding the most dangerous impacts of climate change.2 Basic climate science shows that – all else equal – total cumulative carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) over time determine how much global warming will occur. There is a set level of total cumulative emissions that can occur for a…mehr

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The Paris Agreement, now officially in force and ratified by more than 160 nations, sets a global temperature goal of staying well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while striving to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.1 Signatory nations chose these goals to create a reasonable chance of avoiding the most dangerous impacts of climate change.2 Basic climate science shows that – all else equal – total cumulative carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) over time determine how much global warming will occur. There is a set level of total cumulative emissions that can occur for a given temperature limit. This is our «carbon budget.»3 In Oil Change International's September 2016 report, The Sky's Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production,4 we analyzed what a Paris-aligned carbon budget would mean for fossil fuel production globally. We used the carbon budgets, calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),5 that would give a likely (66 percent) chance of limiting temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius and a medium (50 percent) chance of limiting temperature increases to below 1.5 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the range of the Paris goals. We compared these budgets to the cumulative CO2 that will be released over time from all coal, gas, and oil projects currently operating or under construction around the world (Figure 1). The results show that the carbon embedded in already developed fields and mines would fully exhaust and exceed the carbon budgets the world must stay within to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.