A Mathematical Model For The Transmission Dynamics
Of Influenza with Respect to Seasonal Weather Variables in Kenya
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This research project focuses on determining the effects of weather variables on the seasonality of influenza in Kenya. Influenza transmission dynamics are represented in a compartmental model. Influenza is then modelled as a 5-dimensional deterministic system of ODE's with a variable transmission rate expressed as an exponential function of the weather variables.The basic properties including the basic reproduction number are derived. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium of the model is found and their stability analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be both locally and global...
This research project focuses on determining the effects of weather variables on the seasonality of influenza in Kenya. Influenza transmission dynamics are represented in a compartmental model. Influenza is then modelled as a 5-dimensional deterministic system of ODE's with a variable transmission rate expressed as an exponential function of the weather variables.The basic properties including the basic reproduction number are derived. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium of the model is found and their stability analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be both locally and globally stable.In this project, Influenza data was organised into seasons from December 2016 to November 2011. Graphs were drawn for all the four stations to determine the season with the most flu prevalence.
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