Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses…mehr
Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Ward Edwards (1927-2005) received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Harvard University. He was the recipient of many awards including the Frank P. Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS in 1988 and the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award in Applied Psychology from the American Psychological Association in 1996. He wrote more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications.
Ralph F. Miles, Jr., received his Ph.D. in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and is a consultant in risk and decision analysis. He was the editor and coauthor of Systems Concepts and has written many articles. Until 1991, he worked as an engineer, supervisor, and manager in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology.
Detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California. He is also Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events at USC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan. He cowrote Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research with Ward Edwards.
Inhaltsangabe
1. Introduction Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part I. History and Foundations of Decision Analysis: 2. The emergence of decision analysis Ralph F. Miles, Jr; 3. The foundations of decision analysis revisited Ronald A. Howard; 4. Decision analysis: a personal account of how it got started and evolved Howard Raiffa; 5. Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part II. Structuring Decision Problems: 6. Defining a decision analytic structure Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards; 7. Developing objectives and attributes Ralph L. Keeney; Part III. Probabilities and Bayes Nets: 8. Eliciting probabilities from experts Steven C. Hora; 9. Aggregation of expert probability judgments Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler; 10. Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams Ross D. Shachter; 11. A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks David Heckerman; Part IV. Utilities: 12. Utility and risk preferences David E. Bell; 13. Practical value models Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt; 14. Extensions of the subjective expected utility model Robert F. Nau; Part V. Risk Analysis: 15. Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; 16. The engineering risk analysis method and some applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell; 17. Health risk analysis for risk management decision-making Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; Part VI. Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context: 18. What have we learned from our mistakes? Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke; 19. Decision conferencing Lawrence D. Phillips; 20. Resource allocation decisions Don N. Kleinmuntz; 21. From decision analysis to the decision organization James E. Matheson and David Matheson; 22. Building decision competency in organizations Carl S. Spetzler; 23. Negotiation analysis: between decisions and games James K. Sebenius; Part VII. Applications of Decision Analysis: 24. The adoption of multi-attribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov; 25. Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons: reflections on a controversial decision analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt; 26. Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick; 27. Balancing environmental and operational objectives in a nuclear refueling strategy Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker; 28. Perspective on decision analysis applications Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner.
1. Introduction Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part I. History and Foundations of Decision Analysis: 2. The emergence of decision analysis Ralph F. Miles, Jr; 3. The foundations of decision analysis revisited Ronald A. Howard; 4. Decision analysis: a personal account of how it got started and evolved Howard Raiffa; 5. Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part II. Structuring Decision Problems: 6. Defining a decision analytic structure Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards; 7. Developing objectives and attributes Ralph L. Keeney; Part III. Probabilities and Bayes Nets: 8. Eliciting probabilities from experts Steven C. Hora; 9. Aggregation of expert probability judgments Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler; 10. Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams Ross D. Shachter; 11. A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks David Heckerman; Part IV. Utilities: 12. Utility and risk preferences David E. Bell; 13. Practical value models Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt; 14. Extensions of the subjective expected utility model Robert F. Nau; Part V. Risk Analysis: 15. Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; 16. The engineering risk analysis method and some applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell; 17. Health risk analysis for risk management decision-making Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; Part VI. Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context: 18. What have we learned from our mistakes? Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke; 19. Decision conferencing Lawrence D. Phillips; 20. Resource allocation decisions Don N. Kleinmuntz; 21. From decision analysis to the decision organization James E. Matheson and David Matheson; 22. Building decision competency in organizations Carl S. Spetzler; 23. Negotiation analysis: between decisions and games James K. Sebenius; Part VII. Applications of Decision Analysis: 24. The adoption of multi-attribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov; 25. Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons: reflections on a controversial decision analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt; 26. Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick; 27. Balancing environmental and operational objectives in a nuclear refueling strategy Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker; 28. Perspective on decision analysis applications Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner.
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