Charts
Tables
Forewords
Acknowledgments
I. Introduction
1. Geoffrey H. Moore and His Impact on Modern Business Cycle Research
2. Plan of the Book
II. Analyzing Business Cycles Today
3. Understanding Business Cycles Today: A Critical Review of Theory and Fact
III. Current Assessment of Cyclical Indicators
4. Why Some of the Leading Indicators Lead
5. Business Cycle Surveys: A New Quality in Economic Statistics
6. The Leading Indicators and Monetary Aggregates
7. Cyclical Indicators in Econometric Models
IV. The Usefulness of Indicators in Economic Forecasting
8. Forecasting Turning Points in the Stock Market Cycle and Asset Allocation Implications
9. The Future Lies Ahead
10. The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts
V. Cyclical Indicators and Their Applications: Current Methodological Issues
11. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations
12. A Reassessment of Composite Indexes
13. Long-Leading Index
1919-1988
VI. Recent Business Cycle Research: Implications for Theory and Policy
14. The Long-Run Efficacy of Efforts to Mitigate Downturns
15. Diminished Unit Labor Cost Pressures: Importance for Methuselah Expansion
16. The 1987 Stock Market Crash and the Wealth Effect
17. Entrepreneurial Confidence and Money Illusion
18. Cyclical Effects of International Transmission of Real and Monetary Disturbances
19. What's Natural About Unemployment?
Index
About the Contributors
