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Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
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Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: University Press of America
- Seitenzahl: 186
- Erscheinungstermin: 28. Januar 2004
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 229mm x 152mm x 10mm
- Gewicht: 279g
- ISBN-13: 9780761829522
- ISBN-10: 0761829520
- Artikelnr.: 22416802
- Verlag: University Press of America
- Seitenzahl: 186
- Erscheinungstermin: 28. Januar 2004
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 229mm x 152mm x 10mm
- Gewicht: 279g
- ISBN-13: 9780761829522
- ISBN-10: 0761829520
- Artikelnr.: 22416802
Cynthia Grabo holds an MA from the University of Chicago. She worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980. Ms. Grabo's awards include: the Defense Intelligence Agency's Exceptional Civilian Service Medal, the Central Intelligence Agency's Sherman Kent Award for outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence, and the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement.
Chapter 1 Forward Chapter 2 Editor's Preface Chapter 3 Introduction Chapter 4 The Role of Warning Intelligence: General Nature of the Problem
What is Warning
Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators
Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator
A Problem of Perception
Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors
Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications
Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence
Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Examples of Assessing Timing
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception
Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception
Types of Deception
What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"
What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?
Intelligence in Support of Policy
Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
General Warning Principals
Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index
What is Warning
Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators
Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator
A Problem of Perception
Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors
Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications
Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence
Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Examples of Assessing Timing
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception
Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception
Types of Deception
What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"
What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?
Intelligence in Support of Policy
Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
General Warning Principals
Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index
Chapter 1 Forward Chapter 2 Editor's Preface Chapter 3 Introduction Chapter 4 The Role of Warning Intelligence: General Nature of the Problem
What is Warning
Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators
Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator
A Problem of Perception
Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors
Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications
Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence
Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Examples of Assessing Timing
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception
Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception
Types of Deception
What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"
What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?
Intelligence in Support of Policy
Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
General Warning Principals
Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index
What is Warning
Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators
Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator
A Problem of Perception
Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors
Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications
Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence
Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Examples of Assessing Timing
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception
Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception
Types of Deception
What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"
What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?
Intelligence in Support of Policy
Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
General Warning Principals
Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index