Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two…mehr
Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Cynthia Grabo holds an MA from the University of Chicago. She worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980. Ms. Grabo's awards include: the Defense Intelligence Agency's Exceptional Civilian Service Medal, the Central Intelligence Agency's Sherman Kent Award for outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence, and the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement.
Inhaltsangabe
Chapter 1 Forward Chapter 2 Editor's Preface Chapter 3 Introduction Chapter 4 The Role of Warning Intelligence: General Nature of the Problem What is Warning Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications Fundamentals of Indications Analysis Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations Logistics is the Queen of Battles Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator A Problem of Perception Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise Examples of Assessing Timing Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception Types of Deception What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves" What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know? Intelligence in Support of Policy Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting General Warning Principals Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index
Chapter 1 Forward Chapter 2 Editor's Preface Chapter 3 Introduction Chapter 4 The Role of Warning Intelligence: General Nature of the Problem What is Warning Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications Fundamentals of Indications Analysis Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations Logistics is the Queen of Battles Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator A Problem of Perception Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise Examples of Assessing Timing Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception Types of Deception What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves" What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know? Intelligence in Support of Policy Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting General Warning Principals Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index
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