This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.
Inhaltsangabe
Introduction Part One: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective Chapter One: Intelligence and Belief Acquisition A Taxonomy of Intelligence How can Knowledge be Acquired? Chapter Two: The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method Consistency of Information as an Indicator of Truth Diagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of Truth Subjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of Truth Credibility of Information as an Indicator of Truth ACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective Part Two: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective 125 Chapter Three: The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario Procedure Results Discussion and Conclusions Chapter Four: Predicting Serial Position Effects Predicting Serial Position Effects An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects Chapter Five: Predicting Confirmation Bias An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective Chapter 6: Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis Appendices References Bibliography
Introduction Part One: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective Chapter One: Intelligence and Belief Acquisition A Taxonomy of Intelligence How can Knowledge be Acquired? Chapter Two: The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method Consistency of Information as an Indicator of Truth Diagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of Truth Subjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of Truth Credibility of Information as an Indicator of Truth ACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective Part Two: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective 125 Chapter Three: The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario Procedure Results Discussion and Conclusions Chapter Four: Predicting Serial Position Effects Predicting Serial Position Effects An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects Chapter Five: Predicting Confirmation Bias An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective Chapter 6: Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis Appendices References Bibliography
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