The book provides a comprehensive survey of modern business cycle theory. Starting with the empirically relevant question of measuring business cycles, it encompasses shock-dependent and shock-independent business cycle models. The book attempts to familiarize the reader with mathematical tools like linear difference and differential equations, the Poincaré-Bendixson theorem or predator-prey systems and illustrates the usage of these tools by presenting rational expectation models, disequilibrium models with rationing, and other basic approaches. A separate chapter is devoted to new…mehr
The book provides a comprehensive survey of modern business cycle theory. Starting with the empirically relevant question of measuring business cycles, it encompasses shock-dependent and shock-independent business cycle models. The book attempts to familiarize the reader with mathematical tools like linear difference and differential equations, the Poincaré-Bendixson theorem or predator-prey systems and illustrates the usage of these tools by presenting rational expectation models, disequilibrium models with rationing, and other basic approaches. A separate chapter is devoted to new developments in dynamical economics and their relevance to business cycle theory. The Hopf bifurcation, chaos and catastrophe theory are shortly surveyed and illustrated by simple examples of common business cycle theory. The new edition has been revised and enlarged. It includes a presentation of the Smithies model and recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis.
Preface.- 1. Fluctuations in Major Economic Variables.- 1.1. Periodic Patterns and Stylized Facts.- 1.2. The Measurement of the Business Cycle.- 1.2.1. Economic Indicators.- 1.2.1.1. Harvard Barometer.- 1.2.1.2. NBER Indicators.- 1.2.1.3. Indicators in Germany.- 1.2.1.4. Diagnosis and Prognosis by Means of Indicators.- 1.2.2. Capacity Utilization.- 1.2.2.1. Concepts Based on Single Factors of Production.- 1.2.2.2. Concepts Based on Production Functions.- 1.2.2.3. Wharton School Index and Surveys.- 2. Shock-Dependent Business Cycle Theories.- 2.1. Discrete-Time Shock-Dependent Models.- 2.1.1. Linear Models of the Cycle.- 2.1.1.1. The Basic Samuelson Model.- 2.1.1.2. Hicks Linear Accelerator.- 2.1.1.3. The Influence of Inventories.- 2.1.1.4. Monetary Aspects of the Cycle.- 2.1.2. Non-Linear Multiplier-Accelerator Models.- 2.1.2.1. Ceiling and Floor in the Hicks Model.- 2.1.2.2. The Influence of Ratchet Effects.- 2.2. Continuous-Time Shock-Dependent Models.- 2.3. The Kalecki Model and Mixed Difference-Differential Equations.- 2.4. The Relevance of Shock-Dependent Business Cycle Theories.- 3. Business Cycle Theory and Exogenous Shocks.- 3.1. The Political Business Cycle.- 3.1.1. Governmental Behavior as the Cause of Business Cycles.- 3.1.2. Implications of the Political Business Cycle.- 3.2. The Theory of Stochastic Business Cycles.- 3.2.1. Business Cycle Models with Stochastic Exogenous Influences.- 3.2.2. A Stochastic Business Cycle Model.- 3.3. The Rational Expectations Approach to Business Cycles.- 3.3.1. Expectations and Rationality in Economic Theory.- 3.3.2. The New Classical Macroeconomics.- 3.3.3. Rational Expectations Business Cycle Models.- 4. Shock-Independent Business Cycle Theorie.- 4.1. A Linear Shock-Independent Growth Cycle Model.- 4.2. Goodwin s Quasi-Non-Linear Accelerator.- 4.3. Non-Linear Theories of the Cycle.- 4.3.1. Kaldor s Non-Linear Investment and Savings Functions.- 4.3.2. The Poincaré-Bendixson Theorem and the Existence of Limit Cycles.- 4.3.2.1. Chang/Smyth s Reformulation of the Kaldor Model.- 4.3.2.2. The Non-Linear Phillips Curve and the Cycle.- 4.3.2.3. Non-Walrasian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle.- 4.3.3. Predator-Prey Interpretations of the Business Cycle.- 4.3.4. The Liénard-van der Pol Equation.- 4.3.4.1. The Uniqueness of Limit Cycles.- 4.3.4.2. The Kaldor Model as a Liénard Equation.- 4.3.5. The Hopf Bifurcation in Business Cycle Theory.- 4.3.5.1. The Hopf Bifurcation in the Continuous-Time Case.- 4.3.5.2. The Hopf Bifurcation in the Discrete-Time Case.- 5. Complex Motion in Business Cycle Models.- 5.1. Non-Linearities and Chaotic Movements.- 5.1.1. Chaos in Discrete-Time Models.- 5.1.2. Chaos and Business Cycles.- 5.1.3. Chaos in Higher-Dimensional Systems.- 5.1.4. Numerical Techniques and the Empirical Evidence of Chaos.- 5.2. Catastrophe Theory and Business Cycle Theory.- 5.2.1. Basic Ideas of Catastrophe Theory.- 5.2.2. The Kaldor Model in the Light of Catastrophe Theory.- 5.3. Structural Instability and Business Cycle Theory - Conclusions.- References.- Name Index.
Preface.- 1. Fluctuations in Major Economic Variables.- 1.1. Periodic Patterns and Stylized Facts.- 1.2. The Measurement of the Business Cycle.- 1.2.1. Economic Indicators.- 1.2.1.1. Harvard Barometer.- 1.2.1.2. NBER Indicators.- 1.2.1.3. Indicators in Germany.- 1.2.1.4. Diagnosis and Prognosis by Means of Indicators.- 1.2.2. Capacity Utilization.- 1.2.2.1. Concepts Based on Single Factors of Production.- 1.2.2.2. Concepts Based on Production Functions.- 1.2.2.3. Wharton School Index and Surveys.- 2. Shock-Dependent Business Cycle Theories.- 2.1. Discrete-Time Shock-Dependent Models.- 2.1.1. Linear Models of the Cycle.- 2.1.1.1. The Basic Samuelson Model.- 2.1.1.2. Hicks Linear Accelerator.- 2.1.1.3. The Influence of Inventories.- 2.1.1.4. Monetary Aspects of the Cycle.- 2.1.2. Non-Linear Multiplier-Accelerator Models.- 2.1.2.1. Ceiling and Floor in the Hicks Model.- 2.1.2.2. The Influence of Ratchet Effects.- 2.2. Continuous-Time Shock-Dependent Models.- 2.3. The Kalecki Model and Mixed Difference-Differential Equations.- 2.4. The Relevance of Shock-Dependent Business Cycle Theories.- 3. Business Cycle Theory and Exogenous Shocks.- 3.1. The Political Business Cycle.- 3.1.1. Governmental Behavior as the Cause of Business Cycles.- 3.1.2. Implications of the Political Business Cycle.- 3.2. The Theory of Stochastic Business Cycles.- 3.2.1. Business Cycle Models with Stochastic Exogenous Influences.- 3.2.2. A Stochastic Business Cycle Model.- 3.3. The Rational Expectations Approach to Business Cycles.- 3.3.1. Expectations and Rationality in Economic Theory.- 3.3.2. The New Classical Macroeconomics.- 3.3.3. Rational Expectations Business Cycle Models.- 4. Shock-Independent Business Cycle Theorie.- 4.1. A Linear Shock-Independent Growth Cycle Model.- 4.2. Goodwin s Quasi-Non-Linear Accelerator.- 4.3. Non-Linear Theories of the Cycle.- 4.3.1. Kaldor s Non-Linear Investment and Savings Functions.- 4.3.2. The Poincaré-Bendixson Theorem and the Existence of Limit Cycles.- 4.3.2.1. Chang/Smyth s Reformulation of the Kaldor Model.- 4.3.2.2. The Non-Linear Phillips Curve and the Cycle.- 4.3.2.3. Non-Walrasian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle.- 4.3.3. Predator-Prey Interpretations of the Business Cycle.- 4.3.4. The Liénard-van der Pol Equation.- 4.3.4.1. The Uniqueness of Limit Cycles.- 4.3.4.2. The Kaldor Model as a Liénard Equation.- 4.3.5. The Hopf Bifurcation in Business Cycle Theory.- 4.3.5.1. The Hopf Bifurcation in the Continuous-Time Case.- 4.3.5.2. The Hopf Bifurcation in the Discrete-Time Case.- 5. Complex Motion in Business Cycle Models.- 5.1. Non-Linearities and Chaotic Movements.- 5.1.1. Chaos in Discrete-Time Models.- 5.1.2. Chaos and Business Cycles.- 5.1.3. Chaos in Higher-Dimensional Systems.- 5.1.4. Numerical Techniques and the Empirical Evidence of Chaos.- 5.2. Catastrophe Theory and Business Cycle Theory.- 5.2.1. Basic Ideas of Catastrophe Theory.- 5.2.2. The Kaldor Model in the Light of Catastrophe Theory.- 5.3. Structural Instability and Business Cycle Theory - Conclusions.- References.- Name Index.
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