Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections? Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and…mehr
Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections? Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and election research experience to help this top-notch author team meticulously explain the latest National Election Studies data and discuss its importance and impact. You will critically analyze a variety of variables such as the presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. You will also walk away with a better understanding of this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics.
John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties: A Second Look (2011), coeditor of Positive Changes in Political Science (2007), and author of Why Parties (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association and is serving as president of the American Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Inhaltsangabe
Tables and Figures Preface About the Authors INTRODUCTION Change and Continuity Voters and the Act of Voting Survey Research Sampling Plan of the Book PART I. THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHAPTER 1. The Nomination Struggle Who Ran The Rules of the Nomination System Strategy and the Candidates' Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations CHAPTER 2. The General Election Campaign The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves From the Conventions to the Debates The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout Did the Campaign Make a Difference? CHAPTER 3. The Election Results The Election Rules The Pattern of Results State-by-State Results Electoral Change in the Postwar South The Electoral Vote Balance PART II. VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHAPTER 4. Who Voted? Voter Turnout, 1789-1916 Voter Turnout, 1920-2016 Voter Turnout among Social Groups Changes in Turnout after 1960 Election-Specific Factors Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? CHAPTER 5. Social Forces and the Vote How Social Groups Voted in 2016 How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down CHAPTER 6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote Attitudes toward the Candidates Prospective Evaluations Issue Positions and Perceptions Issue Voting Criteria Apparent Issue Voting in 2016 Conclusion CHAPTER 7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice What Is Retrospective Voting? Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent Evaluations of the Incumbent The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations Conclusion CHAPTER 8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis? Party Identification in the Electorate Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016 Party Identification and the Vote Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations Conclusion PART III. THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS CHAPTER 9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2016 Election Outcomes in 2016 Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress The 2018 Elections and Beyond CHAPTER 10. The Congressional Electorate in 2016 Social Forces and the Congressional Vote Issues and the Congressional Vote Party Identification and the Congressional Vote Incumbency and the Congressional Vote The Congressional Vote as Referendum Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote Conclusion PART IV. THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE CHAPTER 11. The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization Change and Continuity in Turnout Continuities in Electoral Partisanship Changes in the Partisan Electorate Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress Appendix Notes Index
Tables and Figures Preface About the Authors INTRODUCTION Change and Continuity Voters and the Act of Voting Survey Research Sampling Plan of the Book PART I. THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHAPTER 1. The Nomination Struggle Who Ran The Rules of the Nomination System Strategy and the Candidates' Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations CHAPTER 2. The General Election Campaign The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves From the Conventions to the Debates The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout Did the Campaign Make a Difference? CHAPTER 3. The Election Results The Election Rules The Pattern of Results State-by-State Results Electoral Change in the Postwar South The Electoral Vote Balance PART II. VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHAPTER 4. Who Voted? Voter Turnout, 1789-1916 Voter Turnout, 1920-2016 Voter Turnout among Social Groups Changes in Turnout after 1960 Election-Specific Factors Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? CHAPTER 5. Social Forces and the Vote How Social Groups Voted in 2016 How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down CHAPTER 6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote Attitudes toward the Candidates Prospective Evaluations Issue Positions and Perceptions Issue Voting Criteria Apparent Issue Voting in 2016 Conclusion CHAPTER 7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice What Is Retrospective Voting? Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent Evaluations of the Incumbent The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations Conclusion CHAPTER 8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis? Party Identification in the Electorate Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016 Party Identification and the Vote Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations Conclusion PART III. THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS CHAPTER 9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2016 Election Outcomes in 2016 Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress The 2018 Elections and Beyond CHAPTER 10. The Congressional Electorate in 2016 Social Forces and the Congressional Vote Issues and the Congressional Vote Party Identification and the Congressional Vote Incumbency and the Congressional Vote The Congressional Vote as Referendum Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote Conclusion PART IV. THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE CHAPTER 11. The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization Change and Continuity in Turnout Continuities in Electoral Partisanship Changes in the Partisan Electorate Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress Appendix Notes Index
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