Ian Jordaan

Decisions Under Uncertainty

Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• Seitenzahl: 690
• Erscheinungstermin: 5. September 2011
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 260mm x 183mm x 41mm
• Gewicht: 1508g
• ISBN-13: 9780521782777
• ISBN-10: 0521782775
• Artikelnr.: 14684061

Autorenporträt

Ian Jordaan is a full Professor in the Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. Prior to joining the university in 1986 he was Vice President, Research and Development at Det Norske Veritas (Canada) Ltd., and before this he was a full Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Calgary, Canada. He is the recipient of a number of awards including the Horst Leipholz Medal of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering and held the NSERC-Mobil Industrial Research Chair in Ocean Engineering at Newfoundland from 1986 to 1996.

Inhaltsangabe

1. Uncertainty and decision-making; 2. The concept of probability; 3. Distributions and expectation; 4. The concept of utility; 5. Games and optimization; 6. Entropy; 7. Mathematical aspects; 8. Exchangeability and inference; 9. Extremes; 10. Risk, safety and reliability; 11. Data and simulation; 12. Conclusion; Appendix.

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1. Uncertainty and decision-making
2. The concept of probability
3. Distributions and expectation
4. The concept of utility
5. Games and optimization
6. Entropy
7. Mathematical aspects
8. Exchangeability and inference
9. Extremes
10. Risk, safety and reliability
11. Data and simulation
12. Conclusion
Appendix.

Rezensionen

Review of the hardback: 'This book takes a very interesting approach to the treatment of uncertainty and its role in decision making. The author, who has extensive background in both academia and industry, uses an intuitive argument whenever possible to derive common laws of probability ... This approach has a distinct advantage for such use in contrast to the more traditional mathematical foundation, from which most engineering students are discouraged by a perceived lack of applicability. Based on the author's experience, it seems that the book would fit best into an undergraduate civil engineering curriculum, since applications are focused on decisions for the built environment.' Journal of Engineering Mechanics