William Bernhard is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His work has appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the American Political Science Review, International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Politics, and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science.
1. Introduction
2. Democratic processes and political risk: evidence from foreign exchange markets
3. When markets party: stocks, bonds, and cabinet formations
4. The cross-national financial consequences of political predictability
5. Cabinet dissolutions and interest rate behavior
6. Bargaining and bonds: the process of coalition formation and the market for government debt in Austria and New Zealand
7. Time, shares, and Florida: the 2000 Presidential Election and stock market volatility
8. Polls and pounds: exchange rate behavior and public opinion in Britain
9. Conclusion: political predictability and financial market behavior.
