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A Theory of Crash Rate for Private & Public Projects with Critical or non-Critical systems. Analyzing & managing risk has been a quest for 5000 years, and is essential to everything from water supplies, finance, and agriculture to computers and space travel. At last there is a quantitative theory and a simple equation that allows you to: - choose your failure rate - get there optimally - avoid unexpected effects - profit where the competition fails Work a project example based on real-world data to manage the risk of a for-profit 10-passenger transport to an orbital tourism facility. Examine possibilities for managing the crash rate of countries and even the world.