This volume argues that the Mexican crisis of August 1982, in which the country was left facing the prospect of national default and zero economic growth, was not only the result of some fundamental flaws in the country's economy, but is more accurately characterized as a cash flow problem—in the author's words, "a case of illiquidity rather than insolvency." Based on a thorough analysis of the Mexican economy, the book assesses the effectiveness of the various economic programs of the de la Madrid presidency in dealing with the nation's problems.
This volume argues that the Mexican crisis of August 1982, in which the country was left facing the prospect of national default and zero economic growth, was not only the result of some fundamental flaws in the country's economy, but is more accurately characterized as a cash flow problem—in the author's words, "a case of illiquidity rather than insolvency." Based on a thorough analysis of the Mexican economy, the book assesses the effectiveness of the various economic programs of the de la Madrid presidency in dealing with the nation's problems.
Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii I. Historical Trends and Sources of Growth 1 Introduction 3 1. An Overview of the Mexican Economy 5 2. Mechanisms of Mexican Economic Growth 28 3. External Sources of Instability 38 II. Economic Policymaking, 1971–82 53 4. Policymaking during the Echeverría Administration, 1971–76 57 5. Policymaking in the Early López Portillo Years: Devaluation and Stabilization 69 6. Industrial Policy under López Portillo 84 7. Fiscal Policy under López Portillo: Prelude to the 1982 Crisis 95 8. Policymaking in López Portillo's Final Year: The 1982 Devaluations and Aftermath 111 III. Empirical Examinations of Policy Impact 123 Introduction 125 9. Scope for Anti-Inflationary Policy 127 10. Dynamics of the Fiscal System 150 11. Macroeconomic Controversies: The Monetarist-Cambridge Interpretations of the Policy Environment 164 12. Impact of Fiscal Policy: A Critique of the Fitzgerald Thesis 179 IV. Scope for Optimal Policymaking 203 Introduction 205 13. Optimal Stabilization Programs, 1975–81 207 14. Scope for Optimal Policy in an Oil-Based Economy, 1982–87 235 15. Optimal IMF-Type Stabilization Programs during the de la Madrid Presidency, 1983–87 260 16. The Policymaking Dilemma 276 Notes 283 Bibliography 297 Index 307
Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii I. Historical Trends and Sources of Growth 1 Introduction 3 1. An Overview of the Mexican Economy 5 2. Mechanisms of Mexican Economic Growth 28 3. External Sources of Instability 38 II. Economic Policymaking, 1971–82 53 4. Policymaking during the Echeverría Administration, 1971–76 57 5. Policymaking in the Early López Portillo Years: Devaluation and Stabilization 69 6. Industrial Policy under López Portillo 84 7. Fiscal Policy under López Portillo: Prelude to the 1982 Crisis 95 8. Policymaking in López Portillo's Final Year: The 1982 Devaluations and Aftermath 111 III. Empirical Examinations of Policy Impact 123 Introduction 125 9. Scope for Anti-Inflationary Policy 127 10. Dynamics of the Fiscal System 150 11. Macroeconomic Controversies: The Monetarist-Cambridge Interpretations of the Policy Environment 164 12. Impact of Fiscal Policy: A Critique of the Fitzgerald Thesis 179 IV. Scope for Optimal Policymaking 203 Introduction 205 13. Optimal Stabilization Programs, 1975–81 207 14. Scope for Optimal Policy in an Oil-Based Economy, 1982–87 235 15. Optimal IMF-Type Stabilization Programs during the de la Madrid Presidency, 1983–87 260 16. The Policymaking Dilemma 276 Notes 283 Bibliography 297 Index 307
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