Effects of the Oil Export Price Increase on the Economy
Theoretical and Empirical Issues A CGE Analysis of the Case of Kazakhstan
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This study examines the effects of the oil export price increase in both theoretical and empirical contexts considering the Kazakhstani economy as a case study, and discusses the effects of different macro closure rules. The study has been motivated by several factors. First, the theoretical literature on this subject is limited as it relies on the Salter-Swan framework that does not incorporate two- way trade or it assumes the oil sector an enclave. Second, the empirical literature on the effects of the oil export price increase on Kazakhstan using an economy-wide framework is limited. Third,...
This study examines the effects of the oil export price increase in both theoretical and empirical contexts considering the Kazakhstani economy as a case study, and discusses the effects of different macro closure rules. The study has been motivated by several factors. First, the theoretical literature on this subject is limited as it relies on the Salter-Swan framework that does not incorporate two- way trade or it assumes the oil sector an enclave. Second, the empirical literature on the effects of the oil export price increase on Kazakhstan using an economy-wide framework is limited. Third, there is hardly anything in the literature that tests the effects of different macro closure rules in theoretical multi-sector models, although different macro closure rules might trigger different results. As a result, most of the CGE modelers conventionally do not explain the rationale behind their choice of macro closure rules, although the results might be different under different macro closure rules. The study develops several stylized models to test the effects of alternative macro closure rules and applies Lofgren et al's (2002) model to the Kazakhstani economy.
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