The impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment appraisal is addressed in this comprehensive treatment of the restructuring of the electricity supply industry. Demonstrating that the classical approach to generation investment appraisal is no longer valid, a new approach is developed using three economic models to represent differing market conditions. Highlighting the impact on the organisation of the utilities and their suppliers, Electricity Markets offers essential advice for survival in the deregulated environment worldwide. Features include: * Examination of the…mehr
The impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment appraisal is addressed in this comprehensive treatment of the restructuring of the electricity supply industry. Demonstrating that the classical approach to generation investment appraisal is no longer valid, a new approach is developed using three economic models to represent differing market conditions. Highlighting the impact on the organisation of the utilities and their suppliers, Electricity Markets offers essential advice for survival in the deregulated environment worldwide. Features include: * Examination of the alternative market structures and their mechanisms * Methods for investment appraisal and market simulation to support the assessment of market strategies by generators, distributors and suppliers * Use of game theory to predict market behaviour and competitive interaction * Coverage of the analytical and technical aspects of grid deregulation plus a look ahead to the long term productivity and structure of the industry * Discussion of the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency and encouraging optimum levels of investment This timely book will enlighten a broad audience ranging from utility managers and suppliers involved in deregulation to consultants and academics concerned with managing change.Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Barrie Murray is the author of Electricity Markets: Investment, Performance and Analysis, published by Wiley.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface xv Symbols xvii Part One A Review Of Market Structures And Mechanisms 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 Objectives 3 International Perspectives 4 Commercial Arrangements 7 Implications 8 The Analysis 9 Chapter 2 Alternative Market Structures 11 The Gross Pool 11 Bilateral Trading - The Net Pool 13 The Single Buyer 14 Zonal Pools 15 Mixed Generation 16 State Utility 16 Transmission Issues 17 Supply Issues 18 Stranded Assets 18 Market Comparisons 19 Chapter 3 Market Mechanisms 21 Price Setting 21 Securing Availability 22 Accommodating Transmission Constraints 23 Enabling Demand Side Participation 24 Capturing Data for Settlement 25 Calculating Payments 25 Unit Commitment 29 Conclusion 30 Chapter 4 Markets in Operation 33 Reliability 33 Competition 35 Price Trends 38 SMP V Demand 39 Investment 40 Efficiency in Operation 43 Conclusions 44 Chapter 5 Market Modelling 47 Solution Process 47 Production Modelling 51 Conclusions 55 Chapter 6 SMP Theory and Optimal Plant Mix 57 SMP Derivation 57 Derivation of Optimal Plant Mix 58 SMP Estimation 61 Conclusions 62 Chapter 7 LOLP Theory and Optimal Margin 65 Theory 65 Lolp V Margin 66 Comparison of Theory With Model And Actual 68 Lolp and Pooling 68 Optimum Investment Level 70 Conclusion 71 Chapter 8 Idealised Tariffs 73 Basic Principle 73 Ideal Price Derivation 74 Actual SMP Prices 75 Lolp and Capacity Charge 76 BST 78 Comparison of Actual PSP With BST 79 The Open Supply Market 80 Conclusions 81 Chapter 9 Review of Market Shortcomings 83 Marginal Pricing 83 Plant Mix 84 Plant Margins 85 Transmission Management 86 Consumers 86 Security of Supply 87 Conclusions 88 Chapter 10 A Medium-Term Market Based on Lagrangian Relaxation 89 The Requirements 90 The Process 91 The Theory 91 Commercial Arrangements 94 Other Improvements 95 Benefits 96 Conclusion 96 Part Two Generation Investment Appraisal 99 Chapter 11 Basic Principles 101 Classical Approach 101 Pre-Privatisation Approach 102 Post-Privatisation Approach 103 Shortcomings 105 Conclusion 105 Chapter 12 Predicting SMP and Income 107 Estimation of Income 107 Bidding Strategy 108 Generator Costs 108 Profit Forecast 109 Predicting Utilisation 110 Predicting SMP 113 Results 114 Forward Pricing 115 Conclusions 119 Chapter 13 Market Share and Appraisal Process 121 The Profit Function 121 Calculating Total Profit 122 Overview of Process 125 Modelling Uncertainty 126 Alternative Company Interaction Models 128 Comparison With Actual 130 Conclusions 130 Chapter 14 Predicting Multiple Company Interaction 133 The System Merit Order 133 Theoretical Derivation of Profit Function 134 Results 135 Changing Capacity and Demand 135 Multiple Interaction 136 Modelling Interactive Expansion 138 Risk and Option Evaluation 139 Conclusions 140 Part Three Transmission Investment Appraisal 143 Chapter 15 Review of International Structures 145 The Regulated Monopoly 145 Objectives of a Market Structure 146 International Practice 146 Discussion 151 Chapter 16 Cost Apportionment And Benefit 153 Cost Apportionment of Existing System 155 The Benefit Function 155 Assessment of Global Benefit 157 New Investment Types 160 Conclusions 161 Chapter 17 Interconnection Evaluation 163 Income and Costs 164 Effect of Interconnection 164 The Optimal Wheel 165 Example 166 Transmission Profit 168 System Wheeling 169 Consumer Reaction 170 Discussion 171 Chapter 18 Managing Constraints 173 Constraint Costs 174 Post-Market Settlement - Uplift Definition 175 Commercial Arrangements 176 Transaction Model 177 Theoretical Formulation 178 Modelling In Operation 180 Conclusion 182 Chapter 19 Optimal Investment and Outage Planning 183 Modelling 184 Loading Programme 184 The Cost Function 185 Derivation of Optimal Outage Pattern 186 Example 187 Full-Year Assessment 188 Investment Evaluation 189 Commercial Arrangements 190 Conclusion 191 Part Four The Impact On Utility Operations 193 Chapter 20 Impact on System Operation 195 Keeping The Lights On 196 Facilitating The Market 199 The Independent System Operator 201 Conclusions 202 Chapter 21 Impact on System Development 203 Generation Planning 203 Transmission 205 Distribution Planning 207 Conclusions 208 Chapter 22 The Commercial Infrastructure 209 Generation 210 Transmission 211 Distribution 212 Supplier Income 212 Licenced/Unlicenced 213 Culture 213 Take-Overs and Mergers 213 Conclusion 214 Chapter 23 The IT/Communications Infrastructure 215 Background 215 New Requirements 216 Design Considerations 217 Structure 217 Station Links 219 Conclusions 219 Part Five The Changing Market For Facility Providers 221 Chapter 24 New Businesses and Drivers 223 New Interfaces and Drivers 224 New Needs 224 Supplier Response 225 Future 226 Chapter 25 Primary Plant for Generation, Transmission and Distribution 229 Actual Developments 230 Projected Market Needs 233 Conclusions 237 Chapter 26 IT Metering And Telecommunications 239 Metering Systems 240 Commercial Data Handling Systems 242 Settlement Systems 242 Asset Management Systems 243 Operational Systems 244 Conclusions 245 Part Six The Market And The Future 247 Chapter 27 The Role And Effect Of Regulation 249 International Practice 250 Experience 251 Impact on Generation And Transmission 252 The Nuclear Position 252 Gas Electricity Arbitrage 253 Impact on Investment 254 Chapter 28 Conclusions 255 The Market 255 Generation Investment Appraisal 256 Transmission Investment Appraisal 258 The Impact on Utility Operations 259 The Changing Market for Facility Providers 260 Chapter 29 The Future 261 Are Markets Delivering Benefit? 261 The Economic Theory 262 Alternative Structures 263 Alternative Working Arrangements 264 The Way Forward 265 Further Developments 266 Conclusion 266 Select Bibliography 267 Glossary 271 Index 273
Preface xv Symbols xvii Part One A Review Of Market Structures And Mechanisms 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 Objectives 3 International Perspectives 4 Commercial Arrangements 7 Implications 8 The Analysis 9 Chapter 2 Alternative Market Structures 11 The Gross Pool 11 Bilateral Trading - The Net Pool 13 The Single Buyer 14 Zonal Pools 15 Mixed Generation 16 State Utility 16 Transmission Issues 17 Supply Issues 18 Stranded Assets 18 Market Comparisons 19 Chapter 3 Market Mechanisms 21 Price Setting 21 Securing Availability 22 Accommodating Transmission Constraints 23 Enabling Demand Side Participation 24 Capturing Data for Settlement 25 Calculating Payments 25 Unit Commitment 29 Conclusion 30 Chapter 4 Markets in Operation 33 Reliability 33 Competition 35 Price Trends 38 SMP V Demand 39 Investment 40 Efficiency in Operation 43 Conclusions 44 Chapter 5 Market Modelling 47 Solution Process 47 Production Modelling 51 Conclusions 55 Chapter 6 SMP Theory and Optimal Plant Mix 57 SMP Derivation 57 Derivation of Optimal Plant Mix 58 SMP Estimation 61 Conclusions 62 Chapter 7 LOLP Theory and Optimal Margin 65 Theory 65 Lolp V Margin 66 Comparison of Theory With Model And Actual 68 Lolp and Pooling 68 Optimum Investment Level 70 Conclusion 71 Chapter 8 Idealised Tariffs 73 Basic Principle 73 Ideal Price Derivation 74 Actual SMP Prices 75 Lolp and Capacity Charge 76 BST 78 Comparison of Actual PSP With BST 79 The Open Supply Market 80 Conclusions 81 Chapter 9 Review of Market Shortcomings 83 Marginal Pricing 83 Plant Mix 84 Plant Margins 85 Transmission Management 86 Consumers 86 Security of Supply 87 Conclusions 88 Chapter 10 A Medium-Term Market Based on Lagrangian Relaxation 89 The Requirements 90 The Process 91 The Theory 91 Commercial Arrangements 94 Other Improvements 95 Benefits 96 Conclusion 96 Part Two Generation Investment Appraisal 99 Chapter 11 Basic Principles 101 Classical Approach 101 Pre-Privatisation Approach 102 Post-Privatisation Approach 103 Shortcomings 105 Conclusion 105 Chapter 12 Predicting SMP and Income 107 Estimation of Income 107 Bidding Strategy 108 Generator Costs 108 Profit Forecast 109 Predicting Utilisation 110 Predicting SMP 113 Results 114 Forward Pricing 115 Conclusions 119 Chapter 13 Market Share and Appraisal Process 121 The Profit Function 121 Calculating Total Profit 122 Overview of Process 125 Modelling Uncertainty 126 Alternative Company Interaction Models 128 Comparison With Actual 130 Conclusions 130 Chapter 14 Predicting Multiple Company Interaction 133 The System Merit Order 133 Theoretical Derivation of Profit Function 134 Results 135 Changing Capacity and Demand 135 Multiple Interaction 136 Modelling Interactive Expansion 138 Risk and Option Evaluation 139 Conclusions 140 Part Three Transmission Investment Appraisal 143 Chapter 15 Review of International Structures 145 The Regulated Monopoly 145 Objectives of a Market Structure 146 International Practice 146 Discussion 151 Chapter 16 Cost Apportionment And Benefit 153 Cost Apportionment of Existing System 155 The Benefit Function 155 Assessment of Global Benefit 157 New Investment Types 160 Conclusions 161 Chapter 17 Interconnection Evaluation 163 Income and Costs 164 Effect of Interconnection 164 The Optimal Wheel 165 Example 166 Transmission Profit 168 System Wheeling 169 Consumer Reaction 170 Discussion 171 Chapter 18 Managing Constraints 173 Constraint Costs 174 Post-Market Settlement - Uplift Definition 175 Commercial Arrangements 176 Transaction Model 177 Theoretical Formulation 178 Modelling In Operation 180 Conclusion 182 Chapter 19 Optimal Investment and Outage Planning 183 Modelling 184 Loading Programme 184 The Cost Function 185 Derivation of Optimal Outage Pattern 186 Example 187 Full-Year Assessment 188 Investment Evaluation 189 Commercial Arrangements 190 Conclusion 191 Part Four The Impact On Utility Operations 193 Chapter 20 Impact on System Operation 195 Keeping The Lights On 196 Facilitating The Market 199 The Independent System Operator 201 Conclusions 202 Chapter 21 Impact on System Development 203 Generation Planning 203 Transmission 205 Distribution Planning 207 Conclusions 208 Chapter 22 The Commercial Infrastructure 209 Generation 210 Transmission 211 Distribution 212 Supplier Income 212 Licenced/Unlicenced 213 Culture 213 Take-Overs and Mergers 213 Conclusion 214 Chapter 23 The IT/Communications Infrastructure 215 Background 215 New Requirements 216 Design Considerations 217 Structure 217 Station Links 219 Conclusions 219 Part Five The Changing Market For Facility Providers 221 Chapter 24 New Businesses and Drivers 223 New Interfaces and Drivers 224 New Needs 224 Supplier Response 225 Future 226 Chapter 25 Primary Plant for Generation, Transmission and Distribution 229 Actual Developments 230 Projected Market Needs 233 Conclusions 237 Chapter 26 IT Metering And Telecommunications 239 Metering Systems 240 Commercial Data Handling Systems 242 Settlement Systems 242 Asset Management Systems 243 Operational Systems 244 Conclusions 245 Part Six The Market And The Future 247 Chapter 27 The Role And Effect Of Regulation 249 International Practice 250 Experience 251 Impact on Generation And Transmission 252 The Nuclear Position 252 Gas Electricity Arbitrage 253 Impact on Investment 254 Chapter 28 Conclusions 255 The Market 255 Generation Investment Appraisal 256 Transmission Investment Appraisal 258 The Impact on Utility Operations 259 The Changing Market for Facility Providers 260 Chapter 29 The Future 261 Are Markets Delivering Benefit? 261 The Economic Theory 262 Alternative Structures 263 Alternative Working Arrangements 264 The Way Forward 265 Further Developments 266 Conclusion 266 Select Bibliography 267 Glossary 271 Index 273
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