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This book presents new findings on Indian business
cycles and inflation. The research is divided up
into three essays. The first essay finds that U.S.
business cycles have been transmitted to the Indian
economy, not only since India s liberalization of
the early 1990s, but since the early 1960s.
Channels of this transmission do not appear to have
been through trade, but through monetary policy
instead. The second essay finds that the domestic
and global supply shocks are the main reasons for
the apparent absence of the Phillips curve for
India. Once these shocks are adequately taken care
of, the Phillips curve for India emerges in the
conventional fashion. Contrary to conventional
belief, the third essay finds that India s
liberalization of 1991 did not cause any structural
break in India s industrial growth. The policy
shocks of liberalization actually began in the early
1980s and continued until the mid 1990s causing two
breakpoints in 1983 and 1996 in the volatility of
India s industrial growth. These interesting
results will usher in further research on Indian
business cycles and inflation.
cycles and inflation. The research is divided up
into three essays. The first essay finds that U.S.
business cycles have been transmitted to the Indian
economy, not only since India s liberalization of
the early 1990s, but since the early 1960s.
Channels of this transmission do not appear to have
been through trade, but through monetary policy
instead. The second essay finds that the domestic
and global supply shocks are the main reasons for
the apparent absence of the Phillips curve for
India. Once these shocks are adequately taken care
of, the Phillips curve for India emerges in the
conventional fashion. Contrary to conventional
belief, the third essay finds that India s
liberalization of 1991 did not cause any structural
break in India s industrial growth. The policy
shocks of liberalization actually began in the early
1980s and continued until the mid 1990s causing two
breakpoints in 1983 and 1996 in the volatility of
India s industrial growth. These interesting
results will usher in further research on Indian
business cycles and inflation.