Under Xi Jinping, China has embarked into more aggressive gray zone tactics and operations, especially in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. While this new assertiveness has intensified the likelihood of military crises, especially with the United States, Xi has been keen to remain under the threshold of war. Can this strategy succeed?
Under Xi Jinping, China has embarked into more aggressive gray zone tactics and operations, especially in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. While this new assertiveness has intensified the likelihood of military crises, especially with the United States, Xi has been keen to remain under the threshold of war. Can this strategy succeed?
Jean-Pierre Cabestan is emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research, Paris, and emeritus professor of political science, department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is also associate researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris and at the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, Hong Kong. His main themes of research are Chinese politics and law, China's foreign and security policies, China-Africa relations, China-Taiwan relations and Taiwanese politics. His most recent publications are China Tomorrow: Democracy or Dictatorship? (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019) and Demain la Chine: guerre ou paix? (China Tomorrow: War or Peace?, Gallimard, 2021), due to be published in English by Rowman & Littlefield in early 2023.
Inhaltsangabe
Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited 1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition China The United States China's Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia Conclusion 2 War Risks Debate in China China's Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War Debates Among Chinese Experts Conclusion 3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely? Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements The PLA's Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits 4 War Risks in the South China Sea Various Parties' Claims and Controls Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts Conclusion 5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations Enhanced Senkaku Militarization Clarifications and Incertitudes Conclusion 6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War Recent Rise in Border Tensions Risks of Sino-Indian War Conclusion 7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In? Warning Signs Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios Conclusion Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow? War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End? Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific The Role of the US and Its Allies About the Author
Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited 1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition China The United States China's Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia Conclusion 2 War Risks Debate in China China's Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War Debates Among Chinese Experts Conclusion 3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely? Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements The PLA's Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits 4 War Risks in the South China Sea Various Parties' Claims and Controls Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts Conclusion 5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations Enhanced Senkaku Militarization Clarifications and Incertitudes Conclusion 6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War Recent Rise in Border Tensions Risks of Sino-Indian War Conclusion 7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In? Warning Signs Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios Conclusion Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow? War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End? Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific The Role of the US and Its Allies About the Author
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