During recent decades the stirring up of the processes of globalization practically in all spheres of present-day civilization activities has aggravated and brought forth numerous problems resulting from the nature-society (N-S) interaction. It has become apparent that to solve these problems it is necessary to develop new concepts and approaches to the interpretation of global environmental changes that would enable one to select the first-priority directions in studies and to reliably assess the state of the nature-society system (NSS). One of these priorities is to predict global climate…mehr
During recent decades the stirring up of the processes of globalization practically in all spheres of present-day civilization activities has aggravated and brought forth numerous problems resulting from the nature-society (N-S) interaction. It has become apparent that to solve these problems it is necessary to develop new concepts and approaches to the interpretation of global environmental changes that would enable one to select the first-priority directions in studies and to reliably assess the state of the nature-society system (NSS). One of these priorities is to predict global climate change. The growing interest in the problem of global climate change, determined by its practical importance and by available contra dictory estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to climate change, necessitates a systematization of knowledge of and data on the observed climate change and causes of this change. Despite an enormous amount of projects and programmes of studies of past and present climatic trends, the problem of reliable prediction of future climate change remains far from being solved. Emissions to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide, is considered as one of the main causes of an expected climate warming resulting in sufficiently negative consequences for humankind. Therefore, an attempt has been made in this book to construct a formalized technology to assess the levelof the greenhouse effectdue to anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide as well as the effects of other gas components.Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Kiril Kondratyev, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia / Vladimir Krapivin, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Russia / V. Savinykh, Moscow University of Geodesy and Geography, Moscow, Russia
Inhaltsangabe
1 Global ecodynamics.- 1.1 Trends in civilization development.- 1.2 Global changes: real and possible changes in the future.- 1.3 Anthropogenic processes and their modelling.- 1.4 Ecological safety.- 1.5 Biocomplexity.- 2 Greenhouse effect problems.- 2.1 Interactivity of global climate problems and the carbon cycle.- 2.2 Global climate and the KP.- 2.3 Sources and sinks for carbon dioxide in the biosphere.- 2.4 Anthropogenic sources of carbon.- 2.5 Resources of the biosphere and the greenhouse effect.- 2.6 The greenhouse effect and global carbon cycle.- 2.7 Schemes of the gl6obal carbon cycle.- 3 Land ecosystems and global ecodynamics.- 3.1 Global dynamics of land ecosystems.- 3.2 Forest ecosystems and the greenhouse effect.- 3.3 Primary production and carbon dioxide.- 3.4 The atmosphere-land carbon exchange.- 3.5 Problems of biocoenology in connection with the greenhouse effect.- 3.6 A systems approach in biocoenology.- 3.7 Models in biocenology.- 3.8 Modelling the forest ecosystems.- 3.9 Modelling the energy fluxes in the atmosphere-plant-soil (APS).- 3.10 Modelling the coniferous forest productivity.- 3.11 Succession in the tundra-taiga system.- 3.12 Global model of the carbon cycle.- 4 Global environmental change and the World Ocean.- 4.1 The present-day world ocean.- 4.2 Interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean.- 4.3 The zonal model of the global carbon cycle in the atmosphereocean system.- 4.4 Modelling of the carbon cycle in the World Ocean.- 4.5 Organic carbon and oceanic ecosystems.- 5 High-latitude environment and global ecodynamics.- 5.1 Arctic Basin pollution problems.- 5.2 High-latitude environmental science.- 5.3 Arctic atmosphere composition.- 5.4 Atmospheric ozone.- 5.5 Polar aerosols.- 5.6 Cloudiness dynamics.- 5.7 Modelling the processes of propagation of pollutants at high latitudes.- 6 Biogeochemical cycles of pollutants in the environment.- 6.1 Special features of global biogeochemical cycles.- 6.2 Physical processes of propagation of chemicals in the atmosphere and their modelling.- 6.3 Modelling the atmospheric processes of pollutant propagation.- 6.4 Simulation system to model the physical processes of the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere.- 6.5 Natural-anthropogenic sulphur cycle.- 6.6 Phosphorus cycle.- 6.7 Nitrogen cycle.- 6.8 Biospheric budget of oxygen and ozone.- 6.9 Relationship between the global cycles of water and carbon dioxide.- 6.10 Biogeochemical cycle of methane.- 7 Modelling the global changes of the environment.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The global model of the NSS.- 7.3 The role of vegetation in climate change.- 7.4 The role of the World Ocean in climate change.- 7.5 Development of the global model.- 7.6 The extraordinary event of the Antarctic Ozone hole in 2002.- 8 Global climate change and geoinformation monitoring.- 8.1 Reality, hypotheses, and fictions.- 8.2 Radiative forcing stipulated by aerosols.- 8.3 Global warming energetics, and geopolitics.- 8.4 Geoinformation monitoring conception.- 8.5 Global simulation experiments.- 9 Problems and functions of the environmental monitoring systems.- 9.1 Systems of environmental monitoring.- 9.2 The search and identification of extreme ecological and technogenic situations.- 9.3 Efficiency of the detection monitoring systems.- 9.4 Making statistical decisions in the systems of environmental monitoring.- 9.5 Managing natural resources.- 9.6 Assessing the environmental parameters.- 9.7 Monitoring hydrophysical and hydrochemical processes.- 9.8 Remote monitoring of the soil-plant formations.- 633.- 681.
1 Global ecodynamics.- 1.1 Trends in civilization development.- 1.2 Global changes: real and possible changes in the future.- 1.3 Anthropogenic processes and their modelling.- 1.4 Ecological safety.- 1.5 Biocomplexity.- 2 Greenhouse effect problems.- 2.1 Interactivity of global climate problems and the carbon cycle.- 2.2 Global climate and the KP.- 2.3 Sources and sinks for carbon dioxide in the biosphere.- 2.4 Anthropogenic sources of carbon.- 2.5 Resources of the biosphere and the greenhouse effect.- 2.6 The greenhouse effect and global carbon cycle.- 2.7 Schemes of the gl6obal carbon cycle.- 3 Land ecosystems and global ecodynamics.- 3.1 Global dynamics of land ecosystems.- 3.2 Forest ecosystems and the greenhouse effect.- 3.3 Primary production and carbon dioxide.- 3.4 The atmosphere-land carbon exchange.- 3.5 Problems of biocoenology in connection with the greenhouse effect.- 3.6 A systems approach in biocoenology.- 3.7 Models in biocenology.- 3.8 Modelling the forest ecosystems.- 3.9 Modelling the energy fluxes in the atmosphere-plant-soil (APS).- 3.10 Modelling the coniferous forest productivity.- 3.11 Succession in the tundra-taiga system.- 3.12 Global model of the carbon cycle.- 4 Global environmental change and the World Ocean.- 4.1 The present-day world ocean.- 4.2 Interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean.- 4.3 The zonal model of the global carbon cycle in the atmosphereocean system.- 4.4 Modelling of the carbon cycle in the World Ocean.- 4.5 Organic carbon and oceanic ecosystems.- 5 High-latitude environment and global ecodynamics.- 5.1 Arctic Basin pollution problems.- 5.2 High-latitude environmental science.- 5.3 Arctic atmosphere composition.- 5.4 Atmospheric ozone.- 5.5 Polar aerosols.- 5.6 Cloudiness dynamics.- 5.7 Modelling the processes of propagation of pollutants at high latitudes.- 6 Biogeochemical cycles of pollutants in the environment.- 6.1 Special features of global biogeochemical cycles.- 6.2 Physical processes of propagation of chemicals in the atmosphere and their modelling.- 6.3 Modelling the atmospheric processes of pollutant propagation.- 6.4 Simulation system to model the physical processes of the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere.- 6.5 Natural-anthropogenic sulphur cycle.- 6.6 Phosphorus cycle.- 6.7 Nitrogen cycle.- 6.8 Biospheric budget of oxygen and ozone.- 6.9 Relationship between the global cycles of water and carbon dioxide.- 6.10 Biogeochemical cycle of methane.- 7 Modelling the global changes of the environment.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The global model of the NSS.- 7.3 The role of vegetation in climate change.- 7.4 The role of the World Ocean in climate change.- 7.5 Development of the global model.- 7.6 The extraordinary event of the Antarctic Ozone hole in 2002.- 8 Global climate change and geoinformation monitoring.- 8.1 Reality, hypotheses, and fictions.- 8.2 Radiative forcing stipulated by aerosols.- 8.3 Global warming energetics, and geopolitics.- 8.4 Geoinformation monitoring conception.- 8.5 Global simulation experiments.- 9 Problems and functions of the environmental monitoring systems.- 9.1 Systems of environmental monitoring.- 9.2 The search and identification of extreme ecological and technogenic situations.- 9.3 Efficiency of the detection monitoring systems.- 9.4 Making statistical decisions in the systems of environmental monitoring.- 9.5 Managing natural resources.- 9.6 Assessing the environmental parameters.- 9.7 Monitoring hydrophysical and hydrochemical processes.- 9.8 Remote monitoring of the soil-plant formations.- 633.- 681.
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