Greece vs. Argentina: Déjà Vu All Over Again
Will Argentina's Fiasco be Repeated?
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The sovereign default by Argentina in 2001 is unprecedented in size. The current analysis presents the argument that the parallels to Greece's recent difficulties are disquieting. Compared with Argentina at that time, Greece's fiscal position is even worse. Markets have already priced in Greece's risk of default. However, there remains one significant difference: Greece is member of the European Union and not susceptible to speculative currency attacks, advantages that offer some protection from default. An analysis of the anatomies of government debt and sovereign default prepare the reader t...
The sovereign default by Argentina in 2001 is unprecedented in size. The current analysis presents the argument that the parallels to Greece's recent difficulties are disquieting. Compared with Argentina at that time, Greece's fiscal position is even worse. Markets have already priced in Greece's risk of default. However, there remains one significant difference: Greece is member of the European Union and not susceptible to speculative currency attacks, advantages that offer some protection from default. An analysis of the anatomies of government debt and sovereign default prepare the reader to explore both the Argentine and the Greek crisis with a profound theoretical basis. The bailout funds provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will not suffice in this year to honour the debt obligations that become due. In the event of an untenable debt situation, the Argentine legacy implies that a debt workout should be carried out as quickly as possible in order to facilitate the restructuring process and to avoid increasing costs. A predictive model suggests that a Greek debt restructuring is still due in 2011.
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