This Element applies Bayesian insights to explicate historiographic reasoning as probable. It distinguishes epistemic transmission of knowledge from evidence from the generation of detailed historiographic knowledge from multiple coherent and independent evidentiary inputs in three modular stages.
This Element applies Bayesian insights to explicate historiographic reasoning as probable. It distinguishes epistemic transmission of knowledge from evidence from the generation of detailed historiographic knowledge from multiple coherent and independent evidentiary inputs in three modular stages.
1. Historiographic reason: an introduction 2. 'Empiricist' historiography without reasoning 3. Historiography as self-knowledge without reason 4. Unreasonable historiography: fiction and ideology 5. Historiographic reasoning in unified science 6. Historiographic reasoning as social science 7. Bayesian foundations of historiographic reasoning 8. Transmission vs. Generation of historiographic knowledge 9. Generative historiographic reasoning in three stages 10. History of historiographic reasoning 11. Underdetermination: the limits of historiographic reasoning 12. Counterfactual historiographic reasoning 13. Historiographic reasoning in contexts 14. Invalid and false historiographic reasoning 15. Conclusion: the historical sciences References.
1. Historiographic reason: an introduction 2. 'Empiricist' historiography without reasoning 3. Historiography as self-knowledge without reason 4. Unreasonable historiography: fiction and ideology 5. Historiographic reasoning in unified science 6. Historiographic reasoning as social science 7. Bayesian foundations of historiographic reasoning 8. Transmission vs. Generation of historiographic knowledge 9. Generative historiographic reasoning in three stages 10. History of historiographic reasoning 11. Underdetermination: the limits of historiographic reasoning 12. Counterfactual historiographic reasoning 13. Historiographic reasoning in contexts 14. Invalid and false historiographic reasoning 15. Conclusion: the historical sciences References.
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