Hoyle's Fallacy
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Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Hoyle''s Fallacy, sometimes called the junkyard tornado, is a term for Fred Hoyle''s flawed statistical analysis applied to evolutionary origins. Hoyle''s fallacy is a surprisingly easy mistake to make when one has not quite grasped how powerful a force natural selection can be. Hoyle''s Fallacy predates Hoyle and has been found all the way back to Darwin''s time. Hoyle''s Fallacy is based on arguments most popular in the 1920s before the modern evolutionary synthesis...
Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Hoyle''s Fallacy, sometimes called the junkyard tornado, is a term for Fred Hoyle''s flawed statistical analysis applied to evolutionary origins. Hoyle''s fallacy is a surprisingly easy mistake to make when one has not quite grasped how powerful a force natural selection can be. Hoyle''s Fallacy predates Hoyle and has been found all the way back to Darwin''s time. Hoyle''s Fallacy is based on arguments most popular in the 1920s before the modern evolutionary synthesis, and is rejected by all evolutionary biologists. The fallacy begins by (correctly) demonstrating that the search space containing some particular solution (e.g. humans, working cells, the eye) is enormous, something which is not contentious. The fallacy occurs when the conclusion is drawn that the huge size of the search space implies that natural selection could not have located the solution. Sometimes Borel''s Law, which states that very unlikely events do not occur, is invoked to justify the final step, although the fallacy which relates to the vanishing of the probability itself, has already been committed by this stage.
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