Maury Harris

Inside the Crystal Ball

How to Make and Use Forecasts

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts
In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and UseForecasts , UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readersimprove their own forecasting abilities by examining the elementsand processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts.The book:

Provides insights from Maury Harris, named amongBloomberg s 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.
Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly andevaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through thereal-life steps he and other successful forecasters take inpreparing their projections. These valuable procedures can helpforecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs formaking their own specific business and investment decisions.
Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improvingprojections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecastingjudgment-a good sense of history and an understanding ofcontemporary theoretical frameworks-in readable andilluminating detail.
Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including thecredibility of government statistics and analyses, fickleconsumers, and volatile business spirits . Harrisalso offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, suchas natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stockprices, and international economic crises.
Evaluates major contemporary forecastingissues -including the now commonplace hypothesis ofsustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in anenvironment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rateswhen central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate andquantitative easing (QE) policies.
Brings to life Harris s own experiences and thoseof other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as aprofessional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents hispersonal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial successto anyone offering advice about the future.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Wiley & Sons
• 1. Auflage
• Seitenzahl: 400
• Erscheinungstermin: 31. Dezember 2014
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 237mm x 166mm x 35mm
• Gewicht: 666g
• ISBN-13: 9781118865071
• ISBN-10: 1118865073
• Artikelnr.: 39881759

Autorenporträt

MAURY HARRIS is a Man-aging Director and Chief Economist for the Americas for the UBS investment bank. Dr. Harris has led forecasting teams ranked as the most accurate in the country in four separate years over the past decade. In addition, he has been named numerous times to the Institutional Investor (II) All-America Research Team over the past two decades. Dr. Harris is a past President of the Forecaster's Club of New York. Prior to the UBS AG acquisition of PaineWebber Incorporated, he was the Chief Economist for PaineWebber. Before that, Dr. Harris worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and The Bank for International Settlements. Dr. Harris holds a PhD in eco-nomics from Columbia University, an MA in economics from Columbia University, and a BA in economics from the University of Texas, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is married with two children.

Inhaltsangabe

Acknowledgments xiii Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting
xv Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster? 1 Grading Forecasters: How
Many Pass? 2 Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient 8 Bad Forecasters:
One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats 16 Success Factors: Why
Some Forecasters Excel 22 Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in
Forecasting? 23 Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
27 Judgment Counts More Than Math 28 Habits of Successful Forecasters: How
to Cultivate Them 34 Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics 43 Chapter
3 What Can We Learn from History? 51 It's Never Normal 52 Some Key
Characteristics of Business Cycles 55 National versus State Business
Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats? 62 U.S. Monetary Policy and the
Great Depression 65 The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget 68 The Great
Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant 73 Why Was There Reduced Growth
Volatility during the Great Moderation? 75 Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get
It Wrong 79 The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression 80
The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy 81 The Great Recession:
Lessons Learned 85 The Productivity Miracle and the "New Economy" 86
Productivity: Lessons Learned 88 Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't 90 The Tech
Crash Was Not Okay 92 Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to
Evaluate Them 96 Forecasting Recessions 99 Forecasting Recessions: Lessons
Learned 101 Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us? 105
Does the U.S. Government "Cook the Books" on Economic Data Reports? 106 To
What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated? 109 Can You
Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits? 114 The
Beltway's Multiplier Mania 120 Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They? 124
Why Government Statistics Keep "Changing Their Mind" 127 Living with
Revisions 133 Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow? 137 Four
Competing Schools of Economic Thought 139 Minskyites: Should We Keep
Listening to Them? 140 Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect? 149
Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play? 156 Keynesians: Are They Just Too
Old-Fashioned? 161 Chapter 7 The "New Normal": Time to Curb Your
Enthusiasm? 171 Must Forecasters Restrain Multiyear U.S. Growth
Assumptions? 173 Supply-Side Forecasting: Labor, Capital, and Productivity
175 Are Demographics Destiny? 179 Pivotal Productivity Projections 184
Chapter 8 Animal Spirits: The Intangibles Behind Business Spending 199
Animal Spirits on Main Street and Wall Street 201 Can We Base Forecasts on
Confidence Indexes? 207 Business Confidence and Inventory Building 208 How
Do Animal Spirits Relate to Job Creation? 213 Confidence and Capital
Spending: Do They Move in Tandem? 217 Animal Spirits and Capital Spending
226 Chapter 9 Forecasting Fickle Consumers 229 Making and Spending Money
230 How Do Americans Make Their Money? 231 Will We Ever Start to Save More
Money? 237 Why Don't Americans Save More? 239 More Wealth = Less Saving 240
Do More Confident Consumers Save Less and Spend More? 248 Does Income
Distribution Make a Difference for Saving and Consumer Spending? 250
Pent-Up Demand and Household Formation 252 Chapter 10 What Will It Cost to
Live in the Future? 259 Whose Prices Are You Forecasting? 260 Humans Cannot
Live on Just Core Goods and Services 261 Sound Judgment Trumps Complexity
in Forecasting Inflation 266 Should We Forecast Inflation by Money Supply
or Phillips Curve? 271 Hitting Professor Phillips' Curve 271 A Statistical
Lesson from Reviewing Phillips Curve Research 280 Chapter 11 Interest
Rates: Forecasters' Toughest Challenge 285 Figuring the Fed 288 Federal
Open Market Committee 288 What Is the Fed's "Reaction Function"? 290 Is the
Fed "Behind the Curve"? 293 Can the Fed "Talk Down" Interest Rates? 294
Bond Yields: How Reliable Are "Rules of Thumb"? 294 Professor Bernanke's
Expectations-Oriented Explanation of Long-Term Interest Rate Determinants
297 Supply and Demand Models of Interest Rate Determination 299 When Will
OPEC, Japan, and China Stop Buying Our Bonds? 302 What Will Be the Legacy
of QE for Interest Rates? 304 What Is the Effect of Fed MBS Purchases on
Mortgage Rates? 309 Will Projected Future Budget Deficits Raise Interest
Rates? 309 Chapter 12 Forecasting in Troubled Times 315 Natural Disasters:
The Economic Cons and Pros 316 How to Respond to a Terrorist Attack 321 Why
Oil Price Shocks Don't Shock So Much 325 Market Crashes: Why Investors
Don't Jump from Buildings Anymore 332 Contagion Effects: When China Catches
Cold, Will the United States Sneeze? 334 Chapter 13 How to Survive and
Thrive in Forecasting 341 Surviving: What to Do When Wrong 345 Hold or
Fold? 348 Thriving: Ten Keys to a Successful Career 349 About the Author
355 Index 357