Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments - Tecuci, Gheorghe; Schum, David A; Marcu, Dorin; Boicu, Mihai
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This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and evidence; and we test the hypotheses on the basis of the evidence we are discovering. To facilitate the learning of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an…mehr

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Produktbeschreibung
This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and evidence; and we test the hypotheses on the basis of the evidence we are discovering. To facilitate the learning of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; assess the relevance, believability, and inferential force of evidence; and finally judge the probability of the hypotheses.
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Autorenporträt
Gheorghe Tecuci (PhD, University of Paris-South and Polytechnic Institute of Bucharest) is Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Learning Agents Center at George Mason University, Virginia, Member of the Romanian Academy, and former Chair of Artificial Intelligence at the US Army War College. He has published eleven books and more than 190 papers.