This volume is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making.Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Series preface Contributors Editors' preface to the second edition Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation 2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases 3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making 4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy 6. The psychology of sunk cost 7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro 8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames 10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory 11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation? Part IV. Legal Applications: 12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report 13. Explanation-based decision making 14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals Part V. Medical Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists 16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting 17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies 18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers 20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example 21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean 23. Proper and improper linear models 24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems 26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason 28. Risk perception and communication 29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there? 31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items 32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann 34. On cognitive illusions and their implications 35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality 36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach 38. Nonconsequentialist decisions 39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice 40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure Author index Subject index.
Series preface Contributors Editors' preface to the second edition Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation 2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases 3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making 4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy 6. The psychology of sunk cost 7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro 8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames 10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory 11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation? Part IV. Legal Applications: 12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report 13. Explanation-based decision making 14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals Part V. Medical Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists 16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting 17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies 18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers 20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example 21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean 23. Proper and improper linear models 24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems 26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason 28. Risk perception and communication 29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there? 31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items 32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann 34. On cognitive illusions and their implications 35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality 36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach 38. Nonconsequentialist decisions 39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice 40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure Author index Subject index.
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