Judgment and Decision Making

An Interdisciplinary Reader
Herausgeber: Connolly, Terry; Hammond, Kenneth R; Arkes, Hal R

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

This volume is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making.

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Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• 2nd edition
• Seitenzahl: 804
• Erscheinungstermin: 13. Januar 2000
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 236mm x 160mm x 41mm
• Gewicht: 1139g
• ISBN-13: 9780521623551
• ISBN-10: 0521623553
• Artikelnr.: 22757429

Inhaltsangabe

Series preface
Contributors
Editors' preface to the second edition
Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation
2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making
4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions
Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy
6. The psychology of sunk cost
7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro
8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice
Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames
10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory
11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation?
Part IV. Legal Applications: 12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report
13. Explanation-based decision making
14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals
Part V. Medical Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists
16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting
17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies
18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images
Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers
20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example
21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry
Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean
23. Proper and improper linear models
24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts
Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems
26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes
Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason
28. Risk perception and communication
29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy
Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there?
31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items
32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues
Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann
34. On cognitive illusions and their implications
35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality
36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference
Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach
38. Nonconsequentialist decisions
39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice
40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure
Author index
Subject index.