This book argues that today's climate change science undersells what we know with huge confidence and oversells what we know with little confidence, thereby misleading both the public and policy makers during important international debates and negotiations. Crucial reading for environmentalists and oil tycoons alike.
This book argues that today's climate change science undersells what we know with huge confidence and oversells what we know with little confidence, thereby misleading both the public and policy makers during important international debates and negotiations. Crucial reading for environmentalists and oil tycoons alike.
After studying Physics at Oxford, David Stainforth worked on ocean modelling and then studied for a Masters on Environmental Management before working as a renewable energy consultant. He returned to academia to pursue research on computer models of the atmosphere before joining Professor Myles Allen to develop the climateprediction.net project, a public-resource, distributed-computing project which engaged hundreds of thousands of people worldwide with climate modelling. He went on to an Associate Professor position at Exeter University and then to LSE, pursuing research on the philosophy of climate science, climate economics, climate modelling and climate decision making under deep uncertainty.
Inhaltsangabe
* Section 1 * Chapter 1: The obvious and the obscure * Chapter 2: A problem of prediction * Chapter 3: Going beyond what we've seen * Chapter 4: The one-shot bet. * Chapter 5: From chaos to pandemonium * Chapter 6: The curse of bigger and better computers * Chapter 7: Talking at cross purposes * Chapter 8: Not just of academic interest * Section 2 * Challenge 1: How to balance justified arrogance with essential humility. * Chapter 9 - Stepping up to the task of prediction * Chapter 10 The Times They Are A Changin' * Chapter 11 Starting from scratch * Chapter 12 Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions? * Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climate change. * Chapter 13 The essence of climate * Chapter 14 A Walk in Three Dimensions * Chapter 15 A walk in three dimensions over a two dimensional sea * Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? * Chapter 16 Climate change in climate models * Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? * Chapter 17 Measuring climate change * Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? * Chapter 18 - Can climate models be realistic? * Chapter 19 More models, better information? * Chapter 20 How bad is too bad? * Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? * Chapter 21 - What we do with what we've got * Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate? * Chapter 22 - Stuff of the Genesis myth * Chapter 23 Things ... can only get hotter * Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? * Chapter 24 - Making it personal * Chapter 25 - Where physics and economics meet. * Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? * Chapter 26 - Controlling factors. * Chapter 27 - Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.
* Section 1 * Chapter 1: The obvious and the obscure * Chapter 2: A problem of prediction * Chapter 3: Going beyond what we've seen * Chapter 4: The one-shot bet. * Chapter 5: From chaos to pandemonium * Chapter 6: The curse of bigger and better computers * Chapter 7: Talking at cross purposes * Chapter 8: Not just of academic interest * Section 2 * Challenge 1: How to balance justified arrogance with essential humility. * Chapter 9 - Stepping up to the task of prediction * Chapter 10 The Times They Are A Changin' * Chapter 11 Starting from scratch * Chapter 12 Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions? * Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climate change. * Chapter 13 The essence of climate * Chapter 14 A Walk in Three Dimensions * Chapter 15 A walk in three dimensions over a two dimensional sea * Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? * Chapter 16 Climate change in climate models * Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? * Chapter 17 Measuring climate change * Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? * Chapter 18 - Can climate models be realistic? * Chapter 19 More models, better information? * Chapter 20 How bad is too bad? * Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? * Chapter 21 - What we do with what we've got * Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate? * Chapter 22 - Stuff of the Genesis myth * Chapter 23 Things ... can only get hotter * Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? * Chapter 24 - Making it personal * Chapter 25 - Where physics and economics meet. * Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? * Chapter 26 - Controlling factors. * Chapter 27 - Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.
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