Alan Jones

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

The first volume in the Working Guides to Estimating provides an overview of the main processes, methods and techniques that are used for building project and engineering estimates. Alan Jones outlines the principles of Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling and discusses the concepts of Spreadsheet risks and Estimate Maturity.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Seitenzahl: 262
• Erscheinungstermin: 24. Juni 2024
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 234mm x 156mm
• Gewicht: 480g
• ISBN-13: 9781032838786
• ISBN-10: 1032838787
• Artikelnr.: 70437358

Autorenporträt

Alan R. Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, an estimating consultancy service. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (US) and Certified Cost Engineer (CCE) (UK). Prior to setting up his own business, he has enjoyed a 40-year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an estimator, culminating in the role of Chief Estimator at BAE Systems. Alan is a Fellow of the Association of Cost Engineers and a Member of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. Historically (some four decades ago), Alan was a graduate in Mathematics from Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was an MBA Prize-winner at the Henley Management College (... that was slightly more recent, being only two decades ago). Oh, how time flies when you are enjoying yourself.

Inhaltsangabe

List of Figures
List of Tables
Foreword
1. Introduction and objectives
2. Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why five volumes?
1. Why write this series? Who might find it useful?
2. Why five volumes?
3. Features you'll find in this book and others in this series
1. Chapter context
2. The lighter side (humour)
3. Quotations
4. Definitions
5. Discussions and explanations with a mathematical
slant for Formula-philes
6. Discussions and explanations without a mathematical
slant for Formula-phobes
7. Caveat augur
8. Worked examples
9. Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities
10. References to authoritative sources
11. Chapter reviews
4. Overview of chapters in this volume
5. Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series
1. Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional
Number Juggling
2. Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff
3. Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and
Some Mathe-Magical Transformations
1. Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves
2. Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models
1.5 Final thoughts and musings on this volume and series
References
2
Methods, approaches, techniques and related terms
2.1 What is the difference between a method, approach and technique?
2.2 Estimating Process
2.3 Estimating Approaches
2.3.1 Top-down Approach
2.3.2 Bottom-up Approach
2.3.3 Ethereal Approach
2.4 Estimating Methods
2.4.1 Analogical or Analogous Method
2.4.2 Parametric Method
2.4.3 'Trusted Source' Method
2.4.4 Methods that are arguably not methods (in their own right)
2.5 Estimating Techniques
2.6 Estimating Procedures
6. Combining Approaches and Methods
1. Choice of Estimating Approach for a chosen Estimating Element
2.7.2 Choice of Estimating Method for a chosen
Estimating Approach
2.7.3 Choice of Estimating Technique for a chosen
Estimating Method
2.8 Chapter review
References
3
Estimate TRACEability and health checks
3.1 Basis of Estimate,TRACEability and estimate maturity
3.1.1 Building bridges between two estimates
3.2 Estimate and Schedule Maturity Assessments (or health checks)
3.2.1 Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA)
3.2.2 Schedule Maturity Assessment (SMA)
3.2.3 Cost and Schedule Integration Maturity Assessment (CASIMA)
3.3 Good Practice Spreadsheet Modelling (GPSM)
3.3.1 Level of documentation (T, M)
3.3.2 No hidden worksheets, columns or rows (T, M)
1. Colour coded cells and worksheet tabs (U, S)
2. Locked calculation cells and protected worksheets
and workbooks (S)
3. No hard-coded constants unless axiomatic (M)
4. Left to Right and Top to Bottom readability flow (U)
5. Avoid data generated by macros ... Unless there is a
genuine benefit (S,T)
6. Avoid Array Formulae (T, U, M)
7. Avoid dynamic links to external data (S)
8. Use Named Ranges for frequently used table arrays (M, U)
9. Use full syntax within Excel (M)
10. Break complex calculations into smaller simpler steps (T, M)
11. Column and row alignment across worksheets (T)
12. Unambiguous units of measure (U)
13. Input data validation (U)
14. Independent model verification and validation (S)
1. Inherent Risk in Spreadsheets (IRiS)
2. Chapter review
References
7. Primary and Secondary Drivers; Accuracy and precision
8. Thank goodness for Juran and Pareto
1. What's the drive behind the Drivers?
9. Primary Drivers
1. Internal and external Drivers
10. Secondary Drivers
11. Practical issues with Drivers
1. Sub-classification of Primary Drivers
2. Avoid pseudo-drivers
3. Things are rarely black or white
12. Accuracy and precision of Primary and Secondary Drivers
1. Accuracy, precision and Drivers - A Pareto perspective
2. Cone of Uncertainty
13. 3-Point Estimates as a measure of relative accuracy
and uncertainty
14. Precision as an expression of appropriate or inappropriate exactness
15. Chapter review
References
16. Factors, Rates, Ratios and estimating by analogy
17. Estimating Metrics
1. Where to use them
2. The views of others
5.1.3 Underlying Linear Relationship
5.2 Rates
5.3 Factors
5.4 Ratios
5.5 Dealing with multiple Rates, Factors (and Ratios)
5.5.1 Anomalous analogies
5.5.2 Analogies with an additive model
5.5.3 Analogies with a multiplicative model
5.6 Sensitivity Analysis on Factors, Rates and Ratios
1. Choosing a Sensitivity Range quantitatively
2. Choosing a Sensitivity Range around a measure of Central Tendency
1. The triangulation option
2. Choosing a Sensitivity Range around a High-end or Low-end Metric
5.6.5 Choosing a Sensitivity Range when all else fails
5.7 Chapter review
References
6
Data normalisation - Levelling the playing field
6.1 Classification of data sources - Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Data
6.1.1 Primary Data
6.1.2 Secondary Data
6.1.3 Tertiary Data
6.1.4 Quarantined Data
6.2 Types of normalisation Methods and Techniques
6.3 Normalisation can be a multi-dimensional problem
1. Error related
2. Volume, quantity or throughput related - Economies of Scale
6.3.3 Scale conversion - Fixed and Variable Factors
6.3.4 Date or time related
6.3.5 Life Cycle related
6.3.6 Key groupings - Role related
6.3.7 Scope related (subjective)
6.3.8 Complexity - Judgement related (subjective)
6.4 The estimator as a time traveller
6.4.1 Use of time-based indices 'Now and Then'
6.4.2 Time-based Weighted Indices
6.4.3 Time-based Chain-linked Weighted Indices
1. The doubling rule for escalation
2. Composite Index: Is that not just a Weighted Index by another name?
1. Using the appropriate appropriation approach
2. Use of time as an indicator of other changes
18. Discounted Cash Flow - Normalising
investment opportunities
1. Discounted Cash Flow - A form of time travel for accountants
2. Net Present Value (NPV)
3. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
4. Payback Period
5. Strengths and weaknesses of different DCF techniques
19. Special types of formulaic normalisation techniques
20. Layering of normalisation for differences in analogies
21. Chapter review
References
22. Pseudo-quantitative qualitative estimating techniques
1. Delphi Technique
2. Driver Cross-Impact Analysis
3. A brief word or two about solution optimisation
4. Chapter review
References
23. Benford's Law as a potential measure of cost bias
1. Scale Invariance of Benford's Law
2. Potential use of Benford's Law in estimating
3. Chapter review
References
Glossary of estimating and forecasting terms
Legend for Microsoft Excel Worked Example Tables in Greyscale
Index