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High Quality Content by WIKIPEDIA articles! The prosecutor's fallacy is any of several fallacies of statistical reasoning often used in legal arguments. One form of the fallacy results from misunderstanding conditional probability, or neglecting the prior odds of a defendant being guilty; i.e., the chance an individual might be guilty even though there's no evidence directly implicating him/her. When a prosecutor has collected some evidence (for instance a DNA match) and has an expert testify that the probability of finding this evidence if the accused were innocent is tiny, the fallacy occurs if it is concluded that the probability of the accused being innocent must be comparably tiny. The probability of innocence would only be the same small value if the prior odds of guilt were exactly 1:1.