One aim of this book is to examine the causes of fluctuations in the mark/dollar, pound/dollar, and yen/dollar real exchange rates for the period 1972-1994 with quarterly data to determine appropriate policy recommendations to reduce these movements. A second aim is to investigate whether the three real exchange rates are covariance-stationary or not and to which extent they are covariance-stationary, respectively. These aims are reached by using a two-country overshooting model for real exchange rates with real government expenditure and by applying Johansen's maximum likelihood cointegration…mehr
One aim of this book is to examine the causes of fluctuations in the mark/dollar, pound/dollar, and yen/dollar real exchange rates for the period 1972-1994 with quarterly data to determine appropriate policy recommendations to reduce these movements. A second aim is to investigate whether the three real exchange rates are covariance-stationary or not and to which extent they are covariance-stationary, respectively. These aims are reached by using a two-country overshooting model for real exchange rates with real government expenditure and by applying Johansen's maximum likelihood cointegration procedure and a factor model of Gonzalo and Granger to this model.
A. Motivation.- B. The Two-Country Overshooting Model and Construction of Variables.- C. Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root in the Variables of the Overshooting Model.- D. The Cointegration Analysis for the Case of Deterministic Cointegration and Tests with Respect to the Parameters of the Error Correction Model.- E. Forecasting.- F. The Application of the Factor Model.- G. Results.- Appendix 1: The Cointegration Analysis for the Case of Stochastic Cointegration.- Appendix 2: The Description of the Data and Their Sources.- Abbreviations.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.- References.
A. Motivation.- B. The Two-Country Overshooting Model and Construction of Variables.- C. Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root in the Variables of the Overshooting Model.- D. The Cointegration Analysis for the Case of Deterministic Cointegration and Tests with Respect to the Parameters of the Error Correction Model.- E. Forecasting.- F. The Application of the Factor Model.- G. Results.- Appendix 1: The Cointegration Analysis for the Case of Stochastic Cointegration.- Appendix 2: The Description of the Data and Their Sources.- Abbreviations.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.- References.
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