Noel Hendrickson

Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts

A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Structured around independent modules, the text offers a systematic method of reasoning along with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Globe Pequot Publishing Group Inc/Bloomsbury
• Seitenzahl: 358
• Erscheinungstermin: 29. März 2018
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 260mm x 183mm x 24mm
• Gewicht: 868g
• ISBN-13: 9781442272309
• ISBN-10: 1442272309
• Artikelnr.: 50449089

Autorenporträt

Noel Hendrickson is associate professor and a founding faculty member of the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He earned a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has over a decade of experience teaching reasoning methods to aspiring intelligence analysts.

Inhaltsangabe

Acknowledgements About the Author Introduction Part I: The Background to
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An
Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for
Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4:
Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical,
and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach
to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific
Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning
as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal
Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of
Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter
9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of
"Analytic Balance Check" Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of "Analytic Process Reflection" Chapter 11: How to Know the
Right Problem for Analysis The Method of "Analytic Problem Classification"
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 12: Important
Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian,
and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to
Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication
Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 14: How to
Generate New Ideas The Method of "Dialectical Hypothesis Generation"
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of
"Triadic Hypothesis Development" Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been
Taken For Granted The Method of "Underlying Assumptions Triangulation" Part
VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of
Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 17: Important Extant
Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and
Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to
Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods
of Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 19: How to Identify
Individual Connections The Method of "Causal Influence Classification"
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of "Causal
Loop Diagramming" Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And
How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of
"Background Shift Analysis" Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration
for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About "When and Where
Might This Change?" Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures
Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23:
The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the
Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures
Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "When and
Where Might This Change?" Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin
of a Future Possibility The Method of "Convergent Scenario Development"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to
Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible
Unintended Consequences) The Method of "Ripple Effect Analysis"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to
Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of "Divergent
Scenario Development" (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?" Chapter
27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance,
and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to
Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation
Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?"
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or
Expectations The Method of "Strategic Relevance Check" Chapter 30: How to
Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The
Method of "Decision Significance Comparison" Chapter 31: How to Support
Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of
"Expectation Impact Analysis" Conclusion About the Author