Noel Hendrickson
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets
Noel Hendrickson
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets
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The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst's thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not…mehr
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The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst's thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series
- Verlag: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
- Seitenzahl: 358
- Erscheinungstermin: 12. März 2018
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 260mm x 183mm x 24mm
- Gewicht: 870g
- ISBN-13: 9781442272309
- ISBN-10: 1442272309
- Artikelnr.: 50449089
- Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series
- Verlag: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
- Seitenzahl: 358
- Erscheinungstermin: 12. März 2018
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 260mm x 183mm x 24mm
- Gewicht: 870g
- ISBN-13: 9781442272309
- ISBN-10: 1442272309
- Artikelnr.: 50449089
Noel Hendrickson is associate professor and a founding faculty member of the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He earned a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has over a decade of experience teaching reasoning methods to aspiring intelligence analysts.
Acknowledgements About the Author Introduction Part I: The Background to
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An
Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for
Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4:
Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical,
and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach
to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific
Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning
as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal
Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of
Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter
9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of
"Analytic Balance Check" Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of "Analytic Process Reflection" Chapter 11: How to Know the
Right Problem for Analysis The Method of "Analytic Problem Classification"
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 12: Important
Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian,
and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to
Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication
Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 14: How to
Generate New Ideas The Method of "Dialectical Hypothesis Generation"
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of
"Triadic Hypothesis Development" Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been
Taken For Granted The Method of "Underlying Assumptions Triangulation" Part
VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of
Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 17: Important Extant
Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and
Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to
Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods
of Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 19: How to Identify
Individual Connections The Method of "Causal Influence Classification"
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of "Causal
Loop Diagramming" Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And
How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of
"Background Shift Analysis" Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration
for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About "When and Where
Might This Change?" Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures
Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23:
The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the
Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures
Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "When and
Where Might This Change?" Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin
of a Future Possibility The Method of "Convergent Scenario Development"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to
Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible
Unintended Consequences) The Method of "Ripple Effect Analysis"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to
Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of "Divergent
Scenario Development" (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?" Chapter
27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance,
and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to
Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation
Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?"
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or
Expectations The Method of "Strategic Relevance Check" Chapter 30: How to
Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The
Method of "Decision Significance Comparison" Chapter 31: How to Support
Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of
"Expectation Impact Analysis" Conclusion About the Author
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An
Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for
Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4:
Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical,
and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach
to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific
Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning
as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal
Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of
Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter
9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of
"Analytic Balance Check" Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of "Analytic Process Reflection" Chapter 11: How to Know the
Right Problem for Analysis The Method of "Analytic Problem Classification"
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 12: Important
Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian,
and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to
Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication
Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 14: How to
Generate New Ideas The Method of "Dialectical Hypothesis Generation"
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of
"Triadic Hypothesis Development" Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been
Taken For Granted The Method of "Underlying Assumptions Triangulation" Part
VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of
Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 17: Important Extant
Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and
Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to
Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods
of Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 19: How to Identify
Individual Connections The Method of "Causal Influence Classification"
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of "Causal
Loop Diagramming" Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And
How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of
"Background Shift Analysis" Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration
for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About "When and Where
Might This Change?" Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures
Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23:
The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the
Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures
Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "When and
Where Might This Change?" Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin
of a Future Possibility The Method of "Convergent Scenario Development"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to
Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible
Unintended Consequences) The Method of "Ripple Effect Analysis"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to
Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of "Divergent
Scenario Development" (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?" Chapter
27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance,
and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to
Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation
Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?"
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or
Expectations The Method of "Strategic Relevance Check" Chapter 30: How to
Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The
Method of "Decision Significance Comparison" Chapter 31: How to Support
Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of
"Expectation Impact Analysis" Conclusion About the Author
Acknowledgements About the Author Introduction Part I: The Background to
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An
Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for
Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4:
Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical,
and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach
to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific
Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning
as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal
Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of
Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter
9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of
"Analytic Balance Check" Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of "Analytic Process Reflection" Chapter 11: How to Know the
Right Problem for Analysis The Method of "Analytic Problem Classification"
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 12: Important
Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian,
and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to
Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication
Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 14: How to
Generate New Ideas The Method of "Dialectical Hypothesis Generation"
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of
"Triadic Hypothesis Development" Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been
Taken For Granted The Method of "Underlying Assumptions Triangulation" Part
VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of
Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 17: Important Extant
Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and
Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to
Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods
of Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 19: How to Identify
Individual Connections The Method of "Causal Influence Classification"
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of "Causal
Loop Diagramming" Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And
How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of
"Background Shift Analysis" Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration
for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About "When and Where
Might This Change?" Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures
Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23:
The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the
Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures
Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "When and
Where Might This Change?" Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin
of a Future Possibility The Method of "Convergent Scenario Development"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to
Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible
Unintended Consequences) The Method of "Ripple Effect Analysis"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to
Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of "Divergent
Scenario Development" (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?" Chapter
27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance,
and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to
Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation
Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?"
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or
Expectations The Method of "Strategic Relevance Check" Chapter 30: How to
Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The
Method of "Decision Significance Comparison" Chapter 31: How to Support
Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of
"Expectation Impact Analysis" Conclusion About the Author
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An
Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for
Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4:
Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical,
and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach
to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific
Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning
as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal
Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of
Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of
Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter
9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of
"Analytic Balance Check" Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of "Analytic Process Reflection" Chapter 11: How to Know the
Right Problem for Analysis The Method of "Analytic Problem Classification"
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 12: Important
Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian,
and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to
Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication
Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "What is Happening?" Chapter 14: How to
Generate New Ideas The Method of "Dialectical Hypothesis Generation"
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of
"Triadic Hypothesis Development" Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been
Taken For Granted The Method of "Underlying Assumptions Triangulation" Part
VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of
Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 17: Important Extant
Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and
Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to
Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods
of Reasoning About "Why This is Happening?" Chapter 19: How to Identify
Individual Connections The Method of "Causal Influence Classification"
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of "Causal
Loop Diagramming" Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And
How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of
"Background Shift Analysis" Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration
for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About "When and Where
Might This Change?" Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures
Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23:
The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the
Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures
Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "When and
Where Might This Change?" Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin
of a Future Possibility The Method of "Convergent Scenario Development"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to
Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible
Unintended Consequences) The Method of "Ripple Effect Analysis"
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to
Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of "Divergent
Scenario Development" (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?" Chapter
27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance,
and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to
Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation
Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence
Analysts Methods of Reasoning About "How Can the Client Respond to It?"
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or
Expectations The Method of "Strategic Relevance Check" Chapter 30: How to
Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The
Method of "Decision Significance Comparison" Chapter 31: How to Support
Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of
"Expectation Impact Analysis" Conclusion About the Author