Diese 2. komplett überarbeitete und aktualisierte Auflage ist ein idealer Leitfaden für Anfänger und erfahrene Experten auf dem Gebiet der Quantitativen Risikoanalyse. Hier lernen Sie anhand bewährter Techniken die wichtigsten Schritte für das Erstellen eines professionellen Modells zur Risikoanalyse. Die Quantitative Risikoanalyse bietet mit Hilfe der Monte Carlo Simulation eine leistungsstarke und präzise Methode, um die verschiedenen Risiken eines Problems zu integrieren und auf dieser Basis eine realistische Einschätzung des Gesamtrisikos zu ermitteln. Behandelt werden sowohl allgemeine Techniken für die häufigsten Problemstellungen als auch spezielle Techniken für ganz spezifische Problemtypen. "Quantitative Risk Analysis" behandelt den Stoff detailliert, einfach und anschaulich anhand einer Vielzahl von Abbildungen und beschränkt sich auf ein Mindestmaß an Theorie und Fachjargon. (y10/99)
Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999
New chapters are on Bayes' Theorem; Uncertainty and Variability; Plant and animal import risk analysis; More solved problems
Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999
New chapters are on Bayes' Theorem; Uncertainty and Variability; Plant and animal import risk analysis; More solved problems