Roger Flanagan

Risk Management and Construction

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

The construction industry is subject to more risk and uncertainty than perhaps any other industry. Yet, surprisingly, managerial techniques used to identify, analyse and respond to risk were not applied in the industry until the 80 s. Existing texts deal with the theoretical concepts of risk and the techniques that identify and manage it. This book provides a set of tools that enable these management techniques to be put into practice in the construction industry.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Blackwell Publishers
• 1993.
• Seitenzahl: 228
• Erscheinungstermin: 20. August 1993
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 246mm x 189mm x 12mm
• Gewicht: 444g
• ISBN-13: 9780632028160
• ISBN-10: 0632028165
• Artikelnr.: 14799876

Autorenporträt

Roger Flanagan is the author of Risk Management and Construction, published by Wiley. George Norman is the author of Risk Management and Construction, published by Wiley.

Inhaltsangabe

List of figures
List of tables
Forward
Introduction
The aim of the book
Part 1 - Putting risk into perspective:
Introduction
Risk and reward go hand in hand
Risk and contruction
Risk - another four letter word
AGAP (All goes according to plan) and WHIF (What happens if)
The people, the process and the risks
Clients of the industry
Have clients' needs changed? Privately financed infrastructure projects
What do clients want?
Investment in property
Consultatns and risk
Contracting and risk
Part II The background to risk and uncertainty:
Introduction
Defining risk and uncertainty
The uncertainty of life and construction projects
Dynamic and static risk
A threat and a challenge
Some fo ther basic rules for risk taking
Risk 'Place your waterline low'
The risky shift phenomenon - what happens when groups make decisions
The risk of not risking
Risk styles
Removing ignorance - and risk
Probability
Converting uncertainty to risk
Decision-making in the construction industry
Intuition
Bias and intuition
Experts and experience
Rules of thumb
Making a model
Reacting to information
Looking at the past to forecast the future
Types of information
Building a decision model to solve a problem
Part III The risk management system: Introduction
Developing a risk management framework
Risk identification
Sources of risk
Dependent and independent risk
Risk classification
Types of risk
Impact of risk
The risk hierarchy
Risk and the general environment
The market/industry risk
The company risk
Project risk and individual risk
Consequence of risk
Risk reponse
Risk retention
Risk reduction
Risk transfer
Risk avoidance
Risk attitude
Summarising risk management
Risk management
Part IV Some of the tools and techniques of risk management: Introduction
Seeing the big picutre and tthe detail
Decision-making techniques
The risk premium
Risk-adjusted discount rate
Subjective probabilities
Decision analysis
Algorithms
Means-end chain
Decision matrix
Strategy
Decision trees
Bayesian theory
Stochastic decision tree analysis
Multi-attribute value theory
Specify the utility function
Case study
Summary
Sensitivity analysis
Spiider Diagram
Monte Carlo simulation
Portofolio theory
The aplication of portfolio analysis in the construction industry
Stochastic dominance
Cumulative distributions of illustrative portfolios
Conclusion
Part V Utility and risk attitude: Introduction
Risk exposure
Utility theory
Expected monetary value
Payoff matrix
The utility function
General types of characteristics of utility functions
The difference between EUV and EMV in practice
The use of utility theory in construction
Basic principle for the aplication of the theory
Part VI Risks and the construction project - money, time and technical risks: Introduction
Money and delivery sequence
Investment and development sequence
Cost considerations
Operational/revenue considerations
The influence of taxation
Value considerations
Design and construction sequence
Time delivery sequence
Contractors and specialist contractors
Technical delivery sequence
A case study of the technical risks faced by the building surveyor
Part VII Sensitivity analysis, breakeven analysis, and scenario analysis: Sensitivity analysis
Breakeven analysis
Scenario analysis
Sensitivity analysis - an application to life cycle costing
Part VIII Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation: Probability analysis - extending the sesitivity technique
How it works
Using Monte Carlo simulation in the cost planning of a building
Estimating and price prediction an overview of current practice
Cost planning and risk analysis
Interdependence of items
Risk analysis using probabilities
Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation
Considering some probability distributions
Comon distriubtion types
Uniform distribution
Triangular distribution
Normal distribution
A step by step approach to Monte Carlo simulation
Using Monte Carlo simulation on a live project
The result
Questions and Answers
Part IX Constracts and risk: Disagreement and conflict
The purpose of the contract
The fundamental risks - liability and responsibility
Transferring and allocating the risk in the contracts
The principles of control - the theory
The contractual links
Risk avoidance by warrannties and collateral warranties
The types of contract
Contracts and risk tactics
Part X A case study of an oil platform: A practical application of resourced schedule risk analysis
Background
The model
Comparison with deterministic plan
Data
Weather
Project variables
Processing of data
Confidence in the data
Initial results
Conclusion
References and bibliography
Index