This text provides a balance of theory, technique and facilitation. The emphasis is on providing a practical and proven framework for risk management on real projects with a clear, concise description of the complex topic of risk for professionals. Written by experts in the field, it offers a practical, proven means of quantifying and minimizing risk, to inform business decisions in the design and construction field. Case studies and examples on the proper application of software and principles help make this book an important reference to the field.
This text provides a balance of theory, technique and facilitation. The emphasis is on providing a practical and proven framework for risk management on real projects with a clear, concise description of the complex topic of risk for professionals. Written by experts in the field, it offers a practical, proven means of quantifying and minimizing risk, to inform business decisions in the design and construction field. Case studies and examples on the proper application of software and principles help make this book an important reference to the field.
OVIDIU CRETU, PHD, PE, is Cost Estimating and Modeling Unit Manager at the Washington State Department of Transportation. With more than forty years of experience, Cretu earned the Extra Mile Award with Washington State for his development and support of cost risk assessment with strategic thinking and innovation. ROBERT B. STEWART, CVS-LIFE, FSAVE, PMP, is President at Value Management Strategies, Inc., where he has been practicing the management of value and risk for more than twenty years. During this time, he has led more than 300 value and risk studies for clients in both the private and public sectors on a wide range of products, services, and facilities--from simple product studies to multibillion-dollar transportation projects. He has authored several books on the management of value and risk. TERRY L. BERENDS, PE, is an Assistant State Design Engineer at the Washington State Department of Transportation, where he is responsible for the statewide cost estimating, risk analysis, and value engineering programs. Berends is the cofounder of the self-modeling spreadsheet and the implementation of the risk reserve budgeting process.
Inhaltsangabe
PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xix CHAPTER 1: WHY AND WHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT? 1 Introduction 1 What Is an Estimate? 3 What Is Uncertainty? 4 What Is Risk? 4 What Is Risk Management? 4 Why Risk Management? 5 The Limitations of Risk Management 6 Objective of This Book 8 CHAPTER 2: PROJECT COST AND SCHEDULE ESTIMATES 11 Introduction 11 Cost Estimating Methodology 14 Cost Estimating Process 14 Cost Estimating Data 18 Cost Estimating and Project Development Level 18 Estimate Documentation 24 Basis of Estimate 24 Conclusion 25 CHAPTER 3: THE RISK-BASED ESTIMATE 27 RBE--The Process 27 Risk-Based Estimate--How It Works 42 Base Cost and Schedule 43 Risks as Events 63 The Micro-Project 87 Eastside Corridor Program 90 RBE and Estimate Accuracy 100 Conclusions 105 CHAPTER 4: RISK ELICITATION 109 Importance of Elicitation for Project Risk Management 109 Elicitation and Biases 111 Risk and Base Variability 121 Risk Conditionality 124 Summary 146 CHAPTER 5: RISK MANAGEMENT 149 Introduction 149 Risk Response Planning 153 Value Engineering and Risk Management 157 Risk Monitoring and Control 164 Summary 168 CHAPTER 6: RISK-BASED ESTIMATE SELF-MODELING SPREADSHEET 169 Overview 169 Model Accuracy 172 RBES--Cost and Schedule Data Input and Output 174 Risk Conditionality and RBES 183 Model Outputs 198 Risk Management 200 Critical Issues 207 Tutorials/Case Studies 208 Summary 229 CHAPTER 7: RISK-BASED ESTIMATE WORKSHOP 231 Introduction 231 Preworkshop Activities 234 Conditioning Workshop Par ticipants 236 Workshop Objectives 237 Risk Identification Process 237 Postworkshop Activities 244 Everyone Has Duties 245 Helpful Hints 249 Sample Questions to Ask 249 INDEX 253
PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xix CHAPTER 1: WHY AND WHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT? 1 Introduction 1 What Is an Estimate? 3 What Is Uncertainty? 4 What Is Risk? 4 What Is Risk Management? 4 Why Risk Management? 5 The Limitations of Risk Management 6 Objective of This Book 8 CHAPTER 2: PROJECT COST AND SCHEDULE ESTIMATES 11 Introduction 11 Cost Estimating Methodology 14 Cost Estimating Process 14 Cost Estimating Data 18 Cost Estimating and Project Development Level 18 Estimate Documentation 24 Basis of Estimate 24 Conclusion 25 CHAPTER 3: THE RISK-BASED ESTIMATE 27 RBE--The Process 27 Risk-Based Estimate--How It Works 42 Base Cost and Schedule 43 Risks as Events 63 The Micro-Project 87 Eastside Corridor Program 90 RBE and Estimate Accuracy 100 Conclusions 105 CHAPTER 4: RISK ELICITATION 109 Importance of Elicitation for Project Risk Management 109 Elicitation and Biases 111 Risk and Base Variability 121 Risk Conditionality 124 Summary 146 CHAPTER 5: RISK MANAGEMENT 149 Introduction 149 Risk Response Planning 153 Value Engineering and Risk Management 157 Risk Monitoring and Control 164 Summary 168 CHAPTER 6: RISK-BASED ESTIMATE SELF-MODELING SPREADSHEET 169 Overview 169 Model Accuracy 172 RBES--Cost and Schedule Data Input and Output 174 Risk Conditionality and RBES 183 Model Outputs 198 Risk Management 200 Critical Issues 207 Tutorials/Case Studies 208 Summary 229 CHAPTER 7: RISK-BASED ESTIMATE WORKSHOP 231 Introduction 231 Preworkshop Activities 234 Conditioning Workshop Par ticipants 236 Workshop Objectives 237 Risk Identification Process 237 Postworkshop Activities 244 Everyone Has Duties 245 Helpful Hints 249 Sample Questions to Ask 249 INDEX 253
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