Robust Multi-Scenario Optimization of an Air Expeditionary Force: Force Structure Applying Scatter Search to the Combat Forces Assessment Model
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Modern Times' bring change in all areas of life. Even the rate of change has changed and is still changing to increase its enormous speed even more. Newer and more challenging questions face the military analysts everyday putting a question mark at the end of their last answer. Recently, the question of how to structure a robust air force to meet the requirements of competing, uncertain future scenarios has been keeping analysts busy. The new world order does not tolerate only being able to respond to a single scenario anymore, which once was considered a hard problem. Who knows what comes nex...
Modern Times' bring change in all areas of life. Even the rate of change has changed and is still changing to increase its enormous speed even more. Newer and more challenging questions face the military analysts everyday putting a question mark at the end of their last answer. Recently, the question of how to structure a robust air force to meet the requirements of competing, uncertain future scenarios has been keeping analysts busy. The new world order does not tolerate only being able to respond to a single scenario anymore, which once was considered a hard problem. Who knows what comes next? In this thesis, we employ a robust optimization methodology to provide an answer to the multi-scenario optimization problem. The methodology uses a meta-heuristic, Scatter Search, to guide the search of the multi-scenario solution space obtained by the evaluations of Combat Forces Assessment Model, the model currently used to respond to single theater scenario objectives. A Visual Basic\DOS routine performs the necessary interactions to find an Air Expeditionary Force structure robust across three notional threat scenarios.
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