Scenario planning has received much top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. Yet too often it fails to benefit from the input of line managers, who by virtue of their exposure to customers and competitors can pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of significant change to the operating environment. Built on a wealth of case studies, Scenario Planning, Second Edition is a practical how-to guide for managers. Its overall message is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the…mehr
Scenario planning has received much top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. Yet too often it fails to benefit from the input of line managers, who by virtue of their exposure to customers and competitors can pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of significant change to the operating environment. Built on a wealth of case studies, Scenario Planning, Second Edition is a practical how-to guide for managers. Its overall message is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future.Die Zukunft ist immer mit Ungewißheit verbunden. Techniken der Szenarioplanung ermöglichen es dem Leser, diese Ungewißheit gedanklich zu strukturieren. Auf diese Weise kann er die ganze Palette an Ungewißheiten in seinen Plan mit einbeziehen, indem er nach Hinweisen in die eine oder andere Richtung Ausschau hält und mögliche Vorgehensweisen festlegt. Das Buch zeichnet sich durch seine einfache, verständliche und ausgesprochen praxisorientierte Darstellungsweise aus, mit der dieses wichtige Thema aufbereitet wird. Scenario Planning ist also ein Buch für Praktiker, die wissen wollen, was Szenarios sind, was sie mit Planung zu tun haben und warum und wie man sie benutzt.
After research at the University of California, Berkeley and as a Fellow at Somerville College, Oxford, Gill Ringland had a career in the IT industry. After roles in software houses, process control and semiconductor companies, she joined ICL. There she was responsible for building a 3bn new business over five years. As Head of Strategy she used scenarios to understand the complexities of the Information Communications industry and map ICL's future. Gill is a past Member of SRC's Computing Science Committee and of the Council of the Economic and Social Research Council. She is a Court Assistant of the Information Technologists Livery Company, an ICL Fellow Emeritus, a Fellow of the British Computer Society and Graduate of Stanford's Senior Executive Program. Since 2002 Gill has written and consulted widely as Fellow and Chief Executive of St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI). She is the author of three books - Scenario Planning, Scenarios in Business and Scenarios in Public Policy - all published by Wiley. Scenarios in Marketing, co-authored with Laurie Young, is currently in preparation.
