Die Szenario Planung hat eine lange und vielfältige Tradition. Schon früh haben die Menschen versucht, die Entscheidungen von heute zu treffen, indem sie die Möglichkeiten von morgen analysiert haben. Doch damals, als das Morgen noch besser vorhersehbar und weniger von Ungewissheit geprägt war, standen die Chancen gut, dass diese Möglichkeiten wahrscheinlich und richtig waren. Heute jedoch in unserer höchst komplexen Welt ist das einzig Beständige der Wandel. In einer Zeit, in der die Informationstechnologie eine regelrechte Informationsrevolution bewirkt und in der die gültigen Regeln in atemberaubendem Tempo neu geschrieben werden, scheint die Planung mehr auf Glück als auf Weitblick zu basieren. Doch auch für diesen Fall gibt es Mittel und Wege, um mit dem Unvorhersehbaren umzugehen. "Scenario Planning in Business" beschreibt ausführlich Techniken der Szenario Planung, mit deren Hilfe man die Ungewissheit strukturiert in seine Überlegungen mit einbeziehen kann. Anders als der erfolgreiche Vorgängertitel "Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future", konzentriert sich dieser Band insbesondere auf die Szenario Planung im Unternehmensbereich. Ein praktischer und unverzichtbarer Leitfaden für Business Manager!
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight.
There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business.
Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.
Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work:
"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company'
"(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
About the Authors
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
Introduction
Part I: Evolution in the Use of Scenarios
Summary
Vision 2000
A Scenario Project to re-orient ICL's portfolio
From data to scenarios
Information markets
Use in corporate planning
Using scenarios in teams
Adopting existing scenarios
Lessons Learned
Part II: Scenario Thinking
Summary
Strategy and Scenarios.
Where are we now?
Forecasts
Pitfalls and Pratfalls
Evolutionary models for cultural change
Where next?
Conclusions
Part III: Making scenarios work
Summary
The Environment for Scenario Thinking
The Stages of a Project
Getting started
Deciding the question
Interviews and workshops
Scenario creation
Scenarios to plans
Linking Scenarios into the Organisation
Main points
Part IV: Case Studies
Summary
A Study in Turkey
Preparing for a New Environment of Energy of Statoil
New Car Distribution of the Future
Reframing Industry Boundaries for Structural Advantage - the role of Scenario Planning
Software for Collaborative Working
Foresight into Insight
Healthcare 2010 Scenarios: Guiding a Vision for Predictive Medicine
A Trading Group
Lessons Learned and Conclusions
References
Index
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight.
There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business.
Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.
Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work:
"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company'
"(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
About the Authors
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
Introduction
Part I: Evolution in the Use of Scenarios
Summary
Vision 2000
A Scenario Project to re-orient ICL's portfolio
From data to scenarios
Information markets
Use in corporate planning
Using scenarios in teams
Adopting existing scenarios
Lessons Learned
Part II: Scenario Thinking
Summary
Strategy and Scenarios.
Where are we now?
Forecasts
Pitfalls and Pratfalls
Evolutionary models for cultural change
Where next?
Conclusions
Part III: Making scenarios work
Summary
The Environment for Scenario Thinking
The Stages of a Project
Getting started
Deciding the question
Interviews and workshops
Scenario creation
Scenarios to plans
Linking Scenarios into the Organisation
Main points
Part IV: Case Studies
Summary
A Study in Turkey
Preparing for a New Environment of Energy of Statoil
New Car Distribution of the Future
Reframing Industry Boundaries for Structural Advantage - the role of Scenario Planning
Software for Collaborative Working
Foresight into Insight
Healthcare 2010 Scenarios: Guiding a Vision for Predictive Medicine
A Trading Group
Lessons Learned and Conclusions
References
Index