The Art of Uncertainty - Spiegelhalter, David
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Erscheint vorauss. 4. März 2025
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How dangerous is our diet? How much in sports comes down to luck? When authorities pronounce that a given event is "highly likely"-well, how likely is that, really? Our lives are riddled with risk and uncertainty, and renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data to decode the seemingly random events that define our experiences, as well as the numerous decisions we each make in the face of imperfect knowledge. In The Art of Uncertainty, he illuminates how all of us can do this better. Revealing the principles of probability-a field that informs everything from…mehr

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Produktbeschreibung
How dangerous is our diet? How much in sports comes down to luck? When authorities pronounce that a given event is "highly likely"-well, how likely is that, really? Our lives are riddled with risk and uncertainty, and renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data to decode the seemingly random events that define our experiences, as well as the numerous decisions we each make in the face of imperfect knowledge. In The Art of Uncertainty, he illuminates how all of us can do this better. Revealing the principles of probability-a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change-he shows how we can measure our confidence, better evaluate cause and effect, and update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Drawing on fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.
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Autorenporträt
David Spiegelhalter is emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the author of the best-selling book The Art of Statistics. Knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics, he lives in Cambridge, UK.