Dan Rabinowitz

The Power of Deserts

Climate Change, the Middle East, and the Promise of a Post-Oil Era

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Hotter and dryer than most parts of the world, the Middle East could soon see climate change exacerbate food and water shortages, aggravate social inequalities, and drive displacement and political destabilization. And as renewable energy eclipses fossil fuels, oil rich countries in the Middle East will see their wealth diminish. Amidst these imminent risks is a call to action for regional leaders. Could countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates harness the region's immense potential for solar energy and emerge as vanguards of global climate action? The Power of Deserts surveys regional climate models and identifies the potential impact on socioeconomic disparities, population movement, and political instability. Offering more than warning and fear, however, the book highlights a potentially brighter future?a recent shift across the Middle East toward renewable energy. With his deep knowledge of the region and knack for presenting scientific data with clarity, Dan Rabinowitz makes a sober yet surprisingly optimistic investigation of opportunity arising from a looming crisis.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Stanford University Press
• Seitenzahl: 184
• Erscheinungstermin: 25. August 2020
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 203mm x 128mm x 15mm
• Gewicht: 218g
• ISBN-13: 9781503609983
• ISBN-10: 1503609987
• Artikelnr.: 59080535

Autorenporträt

Dan Rabinowitz, Professor of Sociology and Anthropology at Tel Aviv University, is Chairman of the Association for Environmental Justice in Israel. He was Head of TAU's Porter School of Environmental Studies and Chairman of Greenpeace Mediterranean. He received the Pratt Prize for Environmental Journalism (2012) and the Green Globe Award for Environmental Leadership (2016).

Inhaltsangabe

Contents and Abstracts
Introduction: The Heat Is On
chapter abstract
Folk tales, myths, and physical remains in various Middle Eastern cultures
indicate the region saw dramatic climate fluctuations in the past. Climate
models suggest that current global warming could have far-reaching
consequences for the region. Multiplying socioeconomic inequalities,
demographic instability, ethnic tensions, and insecurity, climate change is
impacting scientific fields, from the Earth sciences and the natural
sciences, to history, sociology, and political science. New vocabularies
and methodologies are being developed to help theorize and analyze the
profound changes that will characterize the imminent post-normal climate
era. A determined, sophisticated global environmental movement has long
been trying to convince world leaders to save the planet by instigating
major cuts in CO2 emissions for decades, to no avail. Could salvation come
from oil-rich countries in the Middle East?
1Parched Future
chapter abstract
Advances in climate modeling since 2010 enable scaling down global
predictions to region- and country-specific forecasts. Using these new
methods, researchers predict that temperature hikes in the Middle East will
be sharper than projections for other regions and the world at large.
Rainfall quantities in key areas in the northern and western section of the
region will go down below 200 millimeters per annum, the level necessary
for rain-fed agriculture. This will have serious consequences for
agriculture in Turkey, Syria, northern Iraq, and the Maghreb, and dire
implications for water cycles and animal husbandry across the region.
Dwindling water volumes in the Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates will seriously
endanger regional food production. Egypt and the Gulf countries are
particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise.
2Burning Inequality
chapter abstract
Climate change involves three types of inequality. First, wealthier
communities consume more, are responsible for higher greenhouse gas
emissions, and thus carry a heavier responsibility for the advent of
climate change. Second, affluent communities are more resilient to climate
perils than poor ones. Third, those unwilling to join the struggle against
climate change put others in harm's way. These inequalities, while
omnipresent, are particularly prevalent in the Middle East, where
socioeconomic gaps between and within countries are the widest in the
world. The chapter illustrates that oil-rich Middle Eastern countries are
among the highest per capita CO2 emitters in the world, while poorer
countries hardly contribute to climate change. The chapter reviews regional
gaps in resilience and exposure and demonstrates how oil-exporting
countries in the region have played an active role in efforts since the
1990s to subvert global climate agreements.
3Climate of Insecurity
chapter abstract
Exerting pressure on water, agriculture, and food supply, climate change is
having devastating consequences for arid regions. The chapter distinguishes
between security (small s), a condition with concrete personal and familial
resonance, and Security (capita S), a more nebulous, less rational term
focused on more abstract collectives such as the state or "the realm." The
recent climate-related crises in Syria and South Sudan are reviewed. Given
that similar drought spells could become the Middle East's new normal, the
chapter seeks to isolate the role of climate in such calamities. Analyzing
climate-related migration already underway in the region, it traces the
emergence of "climate refugees" as a discursive term and critically
examines the perils of climate change becoming securitized. Finally, it
highlights the need for proactive, forward-looking planning on behalf of
vulnerable rural communities that might be forced to relocate as a result
of climate change.
4Solar Prospects
chapter abstract
Ideas for renewable energy hubs in the Middle East have been floated since
the 1920s. With costs of solar energy slashed by 90 percent in a single
decade, global investment in renewables is rising quickly. Solar plants are
now being constructed across the Middle East, even in oil-exporting
countries. With abundant solar irradiation, huge tracts of unproductive
land, high liquidity, and a good track record of incorporating new
technologies into civil infrastructure, the six oil-rich kingdoms by the
Arabian Gulf have an immense potential for solar energy. Consistently
pledging to transition their own domestic energy sectors to renewables,
they are now beginning to actually do so. Should they indeed follow through
with this, could they decide to extract less oil and natural gas? More
importantly, are they likely to decide that leading a global energy
transition to renewables is in their own best interest?
5Will 200 Men Save the Planet?
chapter abstract
Disconcerting climate predictions, the imminent demise of oil, and their
huge potential for solar energy could convince the oil-rich countries of
the Gulf to accelerate the global transition to renewables. To avoid
economic ruin they could (a) immediately convert their own energy sectors
to renewables; (b) invest heavily in renewable technologies and capacity
worldwide; then (c) drastically reduce oil and natural gas production. An
already struggling oil industry will be forced to surrender, crowning
renewables the primary source of global energy. Like carriage makers who
became automobile tycoons, the GCC six will have converted their position
in the oil market ante to control of the energy universe of tomorrow. The
economic lockdown triggered by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, which brought
the oil industry to its knees, may leave the GCC with no other option if
they wish to withstand the passage to a post-oil era.