The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts - Heyer, Michael
35,99 €
inkl. MwSt.
Versandkostenfrei*
Versandfertig in 1-2 Wochen
payback
18 °P sammeln
  • Broschiertes Buch

There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this…mehr

Andere Kunden interessierten sich auch für
Produktbeschreibung
There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.
Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
Autorenporträt
The author grew up as an expatriate in Malaysia and now lives in Germany. He received a Master of Financial Economics degree from the University of Maastricht, Netherlands. In his spare time Michael enjoys kite-boarding and reading up on other academic works.