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This paper provides a comparative analysis of the historical parallels between the British Royal Navy of the 19th and early 20th century and the challenges facing American airpower at the dawn of the 21st century. Its title is meant to reflect an acknowledgment of the major points of Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery and build on that work in relation to American airpower via use of a similar trend analysis over the longer term of history. Relative major power decline and relative military decline are discussed in historical context as a framework for British and American comparative analysis. The gradual decline of the Royal Navy and its implications are used as a template for comparison to modern day American airpower. Evidence of similarities and differences is presented with respect to strategy and policy, operations and tactics, personnel and training, materiel and weapons, and administration. The results of this analysis are summarized in a general theory of the lead and lag indicators of a future decline in American airpower over the longer term. Specifically, this analysis argues loss in battle will not be a lead indicator of decline in American airpower, but rather a lag indicator, and that long-term planning should consider aspects of decline in air mastery not directly tied to potential defeat over the battlefield.
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