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The Rise of the Chinese Consumer
China's high GDP growth and rapid urbanisation process involves unprecedented larger numbers of people. Already China's urban population exceeds 450 mn people and the size of the urban population is rising by around 13 mn people per annum (equal to the entire population of Greece). By 2024 China will on current trends have an urban population of 750 mn people larger than that of the US and Europe combined.
Yet structural under valuation of the currency disguises the true size of Chinese consumption demand. Currently, China accounts for only 3% of world consumption spending in US$ terms or around 9% of consumption spending in the USA - the world's largest economy. In US$ terms China is currently only the world's 7th largest market for global consumer companies.
China currently accounts for 40% of world cement demand and 33% of world rice consumption. In addition it is already the world's largest market by units sold for steel, televisions, and mobile phone handsets.
Until recently, conducting a survey of any kind in China was illegal. The first survey of its kind of Chinese consuming patterns, performed by Credit Suisse First Boston, is now in book form. Based on a 2,700 person survey taken in 2004, The Rise of the Chinese Consumer provides a fascinating look into the likely development of consumer spending in China, as their government attempts to reshape the economy from one dependent on investment spending to one that emphasizes consumer spending. Exploring the global implications of the rise in Chinese consumer spending, the book argues that the Chinese consumer will likely displace U.S. consumers as the engine of growth in the global economy by 2014.
In this book Jonathan Garner and his colleagues at Credit Suisse First Boston, argue that by 2014 the Chinese consumer will likely have displaced the US consumer as the engine of growth in the global economy. Government policy is rebalancing demand within the Chinese economy from investment spending to consumption spending. Strong trend economic growth over the cycle, a rise in the consumption to GDP ratio and steady exchange rate appreciation will likely generate an 18% compound annual growth rate in the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending over the next ten years and lead to a quadrupling in Chinas share of global consumption spending. In order to identify the companies and brands which are best placed to succeed in Chinas rapidly developing mass consumer market, Garner and his colleagues discuss the results of the first comprehensive survey of consumer attitudes and preferences to have been conducted in China, covering 2,700 persons in eight major Chinese cities. This survey provides valuable data for the business executive or academic seeking detailed local information on sectors including automobiles, beverages, electronic goods, financial services, food producers, food retail, food services, household & personal care, luxury goods, telecommunication equipment, tobacco, and transport and leisure travel. 'China is likely to be the single most important influence on the fortunes of investors and corporates alike over the next five years, and yet little is known of what motivates and drives the Chinese consumer. By canvassing the people that matter and reflect the changing face of this massive country, Jonathan Garner has provided investors with a unique insight.' Philip Ehrmann, Head of Pacific & Emerging Markets, Gartmore Investment Management Plc.
Aus dem Inhalt:
Acknowledgements. Foreword. Preface. SECTION 1 - THEORY. Chapter 1 - Top down projections of consumption growth in China. Chapter 2 - Drivers of and constraints to Chinas long-run economic growth. Chapter 3 - Near-term risks to consumption arising from Chinas efforts to combat overheating.. Chapter 4 Chinas demographic trends and their implications for household consumption. Chapter 5 Social and cultural influences on consumption. Chapter 6 Chinas growth potential for key product categories. SECTION 2 - EVIDENCE. Chapter 1 - Introducing the proprietary China consumer survey. Chapter 2 General: Lifestyle, income and leverage. Chapter 3 Autos. Chapter 4 Beverages. Chapter 5 Electronic goods. Chapter 6 Food producers. Chapter 7 Food retail. Chapter 8 Food services. Chapter 9 Household and personal care. Chapter 10 Luxury goods. Chapter 11 Telecom equipment. Chapter 12 Tobacco. Chapter 13 Transport and travel. Bibliography. Index.
In this book Jonathan Garner and his colleagues at Credit Suisse First Boston, argue that by 2014 the Chinese consumer will likely have displaced the US consumer as the engine of growth in the global economy. Government policy is rebalancing demand within the Chinese economy from investment spending to consumption spending. Strong trend economic growth over the cycle, a rise in the consumption to GDP ratio and steady exchange rate appreciation will likely generate an 18% compound annual growth rate in the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending over the next ten years and lead to a quadrupling in Chinas share of global consumption spending. In order to identify the companies and brands which are best placed to succeed in Chinas rapidly developing mass consumer market, Garner and his colleagues discuss the results of the first comprehensive survey of consumer attitudes and preferences to have been conducted in China, covering 2,700 persons in eight major Chinese cities. This survey provides valuable data for the business executive or academic seeking detailed local information on sectors including automobiles, beverages, electronic goods, financial services, food producers, food retail, food services, household & personal care, luxury goods, telecommunication equipment, tobacco, and transport and leisure travel. 'China is likely to be the single most important influence on the fortunes of investors and corporates alike over the next five years, and yet little is known of what motivates and drives the Chinese consumer. By canvassing the people that matter and reflect the changing face of this massive country, Jonathan Garner has provided investors with a unique insight.' Philip Ehrmann, Head of Pacific & Emerging Markets, Gartmore Investment Management Plc.
China's high GDP growth and rapid urbanisation process involves unprecedented larger numbers of people. Already China's urban population exceeds 450 mn people and the size of the urban population is rising by around 13 mn people per annum (equal to the entire population of Greece). By 2024 China will on current trends have an urban population of 750 mn people larger than that of the US and Europe combined.
Yet structural under valuation of the currency disguises the true size of Chinese consumption demand. Currently, China accounts for only 3% of world consumption spending in US$ terms or around 9% of consumption spending in the USA - the world's largest economy. In US$ terms China is currently only the world's 7th largest market for global consumer companies.
China currently accounts for 40% of world cement demand and 33% of world rice consumption. In addition it is already the world's largest market by units sold for steel, televisions, and mobile phone handsets.
Until recently, conducting a survey of any kind in China was illegal. The first survey of its kind of Chinese consuming patterns, performed by Credit Suisse First Boston, is now in book form. Based on a 2,700 person survey taken in 2004, The Rise of the Chinese Consumer provides a fascinating look into the likely development of consumer spending in China, as their government attempts to reshape the economy from one dependent on investment spending to one that emphasizes consumer spending. Exploring the global implications of the rise in Chinese consumer spending, the book argues that the Chinese consumer will likely displace U.S. consumers as the engine of growth in the global economy by 2014.
In this book Jonathan Garner and his colleagues at Credit Suisse First Boston, argue that by 2014 the Chinese consumer will likely have displaced the US consumer as the engine of growth in the global economy. Government policy is rebalancing demand within the Chinese economy from investment spending to consumption spending. Strong trend economic growth over the cycle, a rise in the consumption to GDP ratio and steady exchange rate appreciation will likely generate an 18% compound annual growth rate in the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending over the next ten years and lead to a quadrupling in Chinas share of global consumption spending. In order to identify the companies and brands which are best placed to succeed in Chinas rapidly developing mass consumer market, Garner and his colleagues discuss the results of the first comprehensive survey of consumer attitudes and preferences to have been conducted in China, covering 2,700 persons in eight major Chinese cities. This survey provides valuable data for the business executive or academic seeking detailed local information on sectors including automobiles, beverages, electronic goods, financial services, food producers, food retail, food services, household & personal care, luxury goods, telecommunication equipment, tobacco, and transport and leisure travel. 'China is likely to be the single most important influence on the fortunes of investors and corporates alike over the next five years, and yet little is known of what motivates and drives the Chinese consumer. By canvassing the people that matter and reflect the changing face of this massive country, Jonathan Garner has provided investors with a unique insight.' Philip Ehrmann, Head of Pacific & Emerging Markets, Gartmore Investment Management Plc.
Aus dem Inhalt:
Acknowledgements. Foreword. Preface. SECTION 1 - THEORY. Chapter 1 - Top down projections of consumption growth in China. Chapter 2 - Drivers of and constraints to Chinas long-run economic growth. Chapter 3 - Near-term risks to consumption arising from Chinas efforts to combat overheating.. Chapter 4 Chinas demographic trends and their implications for household consumption. Chapter 5 Social and cultural influences on consumption. Chapter 6 Chinas growth potential for key product categories. SECTION 2 - EVIDENCE. Chapter 1 - Introducing the proprietary China consumer survey. Chapter 2 General: Lifestyle, income and leverage. Chapter 3 Autos. Chapter 4 Beverages. Chapter 5 Electronic goods. Chapter 6 Food producers. Chapter 7 Food retail. Chapter 8 Food services. Chapter 9 Household and personal care. Chapter 10 Luxury goods. Chapter 11 Telecom equipment. Chapter 12 Tobacco. Chapter 13 Transport and travel. Bibliography. Index.
In this book Jonathan Garner and his colleagues at Credit Suisse First Boston, argue that by 2014 the Chinese consumer will likely have displaced the US consumer as the engine of growth in the global economy. Government policy is rebalancing demand within the Chinese economy from investment spending to consumption spending. Strong trend economic growth over the cycle, a rise in the consumption to GDP ratio and steady exchange rate appreciation will likely generate an 18% compound annual growth rate in the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending over the next ten years and lead to a quadrupling in Chinas share of global consumption spending. In order to identify the companies and brands which are best placed to succeed in Chinas rapidly developing mass consumer market, Garner and his colleagues discuss the results of the first comprehensive survey of consumer attitudes and preferences to have been conducted in China, covering 2,700 persons in eight major Chinese cities. This survey provides valuable data for the business executive or academic seeking detailed local information on sectors including automobiles, beverages, electronic goods, financial services, food producers, food retail, food services, household & personal care, luxury goods, telecommunication equipment, tobacco, and transport and leisure travel. 'China is likely to be the single most important influence on the fortunes of investors and corporates alike over the next five years, and yet little is known of what motivates and drives the Chinese consumer. By canvassing the people that matter and reflect the changing face of this massive country, Jonathan Garner has provided investors with a unique insight.' Philip Ehrmann, Head of Pacific & Emerging Markets, Gartmore Investment Management Plc.