Visual analysis, also known as technical or chart analysis, is one of the best ways to invest in today's markets--and it's not as hard as you might think. This proven approach allows you to follow almost any market, without having to be an expert on any of them, and it can give you an enormous advantage over those who prefer to use some form of economic or fundamental analysis. With over forty years of market experience and a number of bestselling financial books to his name, John Murphy, one of the world's foremost technical analysts and educators, knows what it takes to make it in this…mehr
Visual analysis, also known as technical or chart analysis, is one of the best ways to invest in today's markets--and it's not as hard as you might think. This proven approach allows you to follow almost any market, without having to be an expert on any of them, and it can give you an enormous advantage over those who prefer to use some form of economic or fundamental analysis. With over forty years of market experience and a number of bestselling financial books to his name, John Murphy, one of the world's foremost technical analysts and educators, knows what it takes to make it in this field. Now, with the Second Edition of The Visual Investor--which has been completely updated for current markets--Murphy shares his invaluable insights on this subject with you. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this updated guide will introduce you to "visual" investing by explaining a variety of charting techniques that professionals have used for decades, and shows you how specific visual tools can put you in a better position to successfully trade commodities, currencies, bonds, and stocks in both domestic and global financial markets. With the real-world examples and comprehensive charts found here, you'll quickly discover how to: * Tell the difference between markets that are trending and those that are not * Locate important breakouts or breakdowns * Spot significant support and resistance levels * Implement asset allocation and sector rotation strategies through exchange-traded funds and mutual funds * Utilize moving averages to keep track of trends * Incorporate essential price patterns into your investment analysis Along the way, Murphy takes you through the ins and outs of reading price and volume charts that can help you make sensible investment decisions, and highlights how you can track the ups and downs of financial markets by visually comparing charts--instead of relying upon complex mathematical formulas and confusing technical concepts. Knowing why a market is moving is interesting, but not crucial to investment success. In order to trade profitably, all that really matters is what the markets are actually doing. Visual analysis is the best way to determine this, and with the Second Edition of The Visual Investor as your guide, you'll learn how to put this effective approach to work for you to enhance the performance of your portfolio.Hinweis: Dieser Artikel kann nur an eine deutsche Lieferadresse ausgeliefert werden.
JOHN J. MURPHY is a former technical analyst for CNBC and has over forty years of market experience. He is the face of StockCharts.com, which provides financial information to online investors via technical analysis tools. Murphy has appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNN's Moneyline, Nightly Business Report, and Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. In 1992, he was given the first award for outstanding contribution to global technical analysis by the International Federation of Technical Analysts, and was the recipient of the 2002 Market Technicians Association Annual Award. In addition to the First Edition of The Visual Investor, he is also author of Intermarket Technical Analysis and Intermarket Analysis, all of which are published by Wiley. He also authored Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Murphy has a bachelor of arts in economics and a master of business administration from Fordham University.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Section One Introduction 1 What Has Changed? 1 Fund Categories 2 Global Funds 2 Investors Need to Be Better Informed 3 Benefits of Visual Investing 3 Structure of the Book 3 Chapter 1 What Is Visual Investing? 5 Why Market Analysis? 5 The Trend Is to Blend 6 What's in a Name? 6 Why Study the Market? 7 Chartists Are Cheaters 7 It's Always Just Supply and Demand 7 Charts Are Just Faster 8 Charts Do Look Ahead 8 Pictures Don't Lie 9 Picture Anything You Want 9 The Market's Always Right 9 It's All About Trend 10 Isn't the Past Always Prologue? 10 Timing Is Everything 13 Summary 13 Chapter 2 The Trend Is Your Friend 15 What Is a Trend? 15 Support and Resistance Levels 18 Role Reversal 18 Short Versus Long Term 25 Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts 28 Recent versus Distant Past 28 Trendlines 31 Channel Lines 34 Retracing Our Steps by One-Third, One-Half, and Two-Thirds 34 Weekly Reversals 38 Summary 38 Chapter 3 Pictures That Tell a Story 41 Chart Types 41 Time Choices 46 Scaling 46 Volume Analysis 50 Chart Patterns 52 Measuring Techniques 61 Even the Fed Is Charting 65 The Triangle 65 Point-and-Figure Charts 66 Chart Pattern Recognition Software 70 Section Two Indicators 73 Chapter 4 Your Best Friend in a Trend 75 Two Classes of Indicators 75 The Moving Average 76 The Simple Average 76 Weighting the Average or Smoothing It? 77 Moving Average Lengths 77 Moving Average Combinations 78 Summary 95 Chapter 5 Is It Overbought or Oversold? 97 Measuring Overbought and Oversold Conditions 97 Divergences 97 Momentum 99 Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index 100 The Stochastics Oscillator 110 Combine RSI and Stochastics 113 Summary 119 Chapter 6 How to Have the Best of Both Worlds 121 MACD Construction 121 MACD as Trend-Following Indicator 123 MACD as an Oscillator 123 MACD Divergences 125 How to Blend Daily and Weekly Signals 125 How to Make MACD Even Better-The Histogram 128 Be Sure to Watch Monthly Signals 130 How to Know Which Indicators to Use 130 The Average Directional Movement (ADX) Line 133 Summary 135 Section Three Linkage 137 Chapter 7 Market Linkage 139 The Asset Allocation Process 140 The Relative Strength Ratio 142 2002 Shift from Paper to Hard Assets 142 Commodity/Bond Ratio also Turned up 144 Turns in the Bond/Stock Ratio 144 2007 Ratio Shifts Back to Bonds 147 Bonds Rise as Stocks Fall 147 Falling U.S. Rates Hurt the Dollar 147 Falling Dollar Pushes Gold to Record High 150 Commodity-Related Stocks 153 Foreign Stocks Are Linked to the Dollar 153 Commodity Exporters Get Bigger Boost 156 Global Decoupling Is a Myth 156 Rising Yen Threatens Global Stocks 158 Review of 2004 Intermarket Book 159 Summary 161 Chapter 8 Market Breadth 163 Measuring Market Breadth with NYSE AD Line 163 NYSE AD Line Violates Moving Average Lines 164 Advance-Decline Shows Negative Divergence 164 Where the Negative Divergences Were Located 166 Retail Stocks Start to Underperform During 2007 169 Retailers and Homebuilders Were Linked 171 Consumers are also Squeezed by Rising Oil 173 Dow Theory 173 Transports Don't Confirm Industrial High 175 Percent of NYSE Stocks above 200-Day Average 175 NYSE Bullish Percent Index 179 Point-and-Figure Version of BPI 181 Summary 182 Chapter 9 Relative Strength and Rotation 183 Uses of Relative Strength 183 Top-Down Analysis 186 Relative Strength versus Absolute Performance 187 Using Relative Strength between Stocks 190 Comparing Gold Stocks to Gold 190 How to Spot New Market Leaders 193 Where the Money Came from 193 Spotting Rotation Back into Large Caps 196 Trend Changes Are Easy to Spot 198 Rotation within Market Sectors 198 Chinese Stocks Lose Leadership Role 200 Summary 202 Section Four Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds 205 Chapter 10 Sectors and Industry Groups 207 Difference between Sectors and Industry Groups 208 Performance Charts 209 Sector Carpets 211 Using Market Carpet to Find Stock Leaders 212 Industry Group Leader 213 Sector Trends Need to Be Monitored 214 Information on Sectors and Industry Groups 214 Spotting Natural Gas Leadership 215 Natural Gas Components 215 CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index 217 Summary 221 Chapter 11 Mutual Funds 227 What Works on Mutual Funds 227 Open- versus Closed-End Funds 228 Charting Adjustments on Open-End Funds 228 Blending Fundamental and Technical Data 229 Relative Strength Analysis 229 Traditional and Nontraditional Mutual Funds 229 Keep It Simple 230 200-Day Moving Average and Housing 230 Natural Gas Breakout 232 Consumer Discretionary Breakdown 232 Bear Crossing Sinks Chips 235 Negative ROC Hurts Technology 235 Consumer Staples Hold Up Okay 235 Retail Ratio Plunges 235 Energizing a Portfolio 240 Latin America Leads 240 Real Estate Is Global 240 Profunds Rising Rates Fund 244 Profunds Falling U.S. Dollar Fund 244 Commodity Mutual Funds 247 Inverse Stock Funds 247 Summary 250 Chapter 12 Exchange-Traded Funds 251 ETFs versus Mutual Funds 252 Using ETFs to Hedge 253 Using a Bear ETF 253 Trading the Nasdaq 100 255 Using Sector ETFs 258 Inverse Sector ETFs 260 Using Technology as a Market Indicator 260 Commodity ETFs 263 Foreign Currency ETFs 263 Bond ETFs 267 International ETFs 269 Summary 275 Conclusion 279 Why It's Called Visual Investing 279 The Media Will Always Tell You Why Later 279 Media Views Keep Shifting 280 Visual Analysis Is More User Friendly 280 Keep It Simple 280 Visual Tools Are Universal 281 The Stock Market Leads the Economy 281 Prices Lead the Fundamentals 282 Sector Investing 282 Exchange-Traded Funds 283 A Year After the 2007 Top 283 Warning Signs were Clearly Visible 284 Appendix A Getting Started 285 Find a Good Web Site 285 Use the Readers Choice Awards 285 StockCharts.com 286 Chart School 286 Online Bookstore 287 Investor's Business Daily 288 Stock Scans 288 Bullish Percent Indexes 289 DecisionPoint.com 294 McClellan Breadth Indicators 294 Appendix B Japanese Candlesticks 295 Candlestick Patterns 297 Bullish Engulfing Pattern 298 Stock Scan Candlestick Patterns 300 Recommended Reading 300 Appendix C Point-and-Figure Charting 301 Triple and Quadruple Signals 302 How to Vary P&F Charts for Sensitivity 304 There's No Doubt about P&F Signals 305 Recommended Reading 306 Index 307
Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Section One Introduction 1 What Has Changed? 1 Fund Categories 2 Global Funds 2 Investors Need to Be Better Informed 3 Benefits of Visual Investing 3 Structure of the Book 3 Chapter 1 What Is Visual Investing? 5 Why Market Analysis? 5 The Trend Is to Blend 6 What's in a Name? 6 Why Study the Market? 7 Chartists Are Cheaters 7 It's Always Just Supply and Demand 7 Charts Are Just Faster 8 Charts Do Look Ahead 8 Pictures Don't Lie 9 Picture Anything You Want 9 The Market's Always Right 9 It's All About Trend 10 Isn't the Past Always Prologue? 10 Timing Is Everything 13 Summary 13 Chapter 2 The Trend Is Your Friend 15 What Is a Trend? 15 Support and Resistance Levels 18 Role Reversal 18 Short Versus Long Term 25 Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts 28 Recent versus Distant Past 28 Trendlines 31 Channel Lines 34 Retracing Our Steps by One-Third, One-Half, and Two-Thirds 34 Weekly Reversals 38 Summary 38 Chapter 3 Pictures That Tell a Story 41 Chart Types 41 Time Choices 46 Scaling 46 Volume Analysis 50 Chart Patterns 52 Measuring Techniques 61 Even the Fed Is Charting 65 The Triangle 65 Point-and-Figure Charts 66 Chart Pattern Recognition Software 70 Section Two Indicators 73 Chapter 4 Your Best Friend in a Trend 75 Two Classes of Indicators 75 The Moving Average 76 The Simple Average 76 Weighting the Average or Smoothing It? 77 Moving Average Lengths 77 Moving Average Combinations 78 Summary 95 Chapter 5 Is It Overbought or Oversold? 97 Measuring Overbought and Oversold Conditions 97 Divergences 97 Momentum 99 Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index 100 The Stochastics Oscillator 110 Combine RSI and Stochastics 113 Summary 119 Chapter 6 How to Have the Best of Both Worlds 121 MACD Construction 121 MACD as Trend-Following Indicator 123 MACD as an Oscillator 123 MACD Divergences 125 How to Blend Daily and Weekly Signals 125 How to Make MACD Even Better-The Histogram 128 Be Sure to Watch Monthly Signals 130 How to Know Which Indicators to Use 130 The Average Directional Movement (ADX) Line 133 Summary 135 Section Three Linkage 137 Chapter 7 Market Linkage 139 The Asset Allocation Process 140 The Relative Strength Ratio 142 2002 Shift from Paper to Hard Assets 142 Commodity/Bond Ratio also Turned up 144 Turns in the Bond/Stock Ratio 144 2007 Ratio Shifts Back to Bonds 147 Bonds Rise as Stocks Fall 147 Falling U.S. Rates Hurt the Dollar 147 Falling Dollar Pushes Gold to Record High 150 Commodity-Related Stocks 153 Foreign Stocks Are Linked to the Dollar 153 Commodity Exporters Get Bigger Boost 156 Global Decoupling Is a Myth 156 Rising Yen Threatens Global Stocks 158 Review of 2004 Intermarket Book 159 Summary 161 Chapter 8 Market Breadth 163 Measuring Market Breadth with NYSE AD Line 163 NYSE AD Line Violates Moving Average Lines 164 Advance-Decline Shows Negative Divergence 164 Where the Negative Divergences Were Located 166 Retail Stocks Start to Underperform During 2007 169 Retailers and Homebuilders Were Linked 171 Consumers are also Squeezed by Rising Oil 173 Dow Theory 173 Transports Don't Confirm Industrial High 175 Percent of NYSE Stocks above 200-Day Average 175 NYSE Bullish Percent Index 179 Point-and-Figure Version of BPI 181 Summary 182 Chapter 9 Relative Strength and Rotation 183 Uses of Relative Strength 183 Top-Down Analysis 186 Relative Strength versus Absolute Performance 187 Using Relative Strength between Stocks 190 Comparing Gold Stocks to Gold 190 How to Spot New Market Leaders 193 Where the Money Came from 193 Spotting Rotation Back into Large Caps 196 Trend Changes Are Easy to Spot 198 Rotation within Market Sectors 198 Chinese Stocks Lose Leadership Role 200 Summary 202 Section Four Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds 205 Chapter 10 Sectors and Industry Groups 207 Difference between Sectors and Industry Groups 208 Performance Charts 209 Sector Carpets 211 Using Market Carpet to Find Stock Leaders 212 Industry Group Leader 213 Sector Trends Need to Be Monitored 214 Information on Sectors and Industry Groups 214 Spotting Natural Gas Leadership 215 Natural Gas Components 215 CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index 217 Summary 221 Chapter 11 Mutual Funds 227 What Works on Mutual Funds 227 Open- versus Closed-End Funds 228 Charting Adjustments on Open-End Funds 228 Blending Fundamental and Technical Data 229 Relative Strength Analysis 229 Traditional and Nontraditional Mutual Funds 229 Keep It Simple 230 200-Day Moving Average and Housing 230 Natural Gas Breakout 232 Consumer Discretionary Breakdown 232 Bear Crossing Sinks Chips 235 Negative ROC Hurts Technology 235 Consumer Staples Hold Up Okay 235 Retail Ratio Plunges 235 Energizing a Portfolio 240 Latin America Leads 240 Real Estate Is Global 240 Profunds Rising Rates Fund 244 Profunds Falling U.S. Dollar Fund 244 Commodity Mutual Funds 247 Inverse Stock Funds 247 Summary 250 Chapter 12 Exchange-Traded Funds 251 ETFs versus Mutual Funds 252 Using ETFs to Hedge 253 Using a Bear ETF 253 Trading the Nasdaq 100 255 Using Sector ETFs 258 Inverse Sector ETFs 260 Using Technology as a Market Indicator 260 Commodity ETFs 263 Foreign Currency ETFs 263 Bond ETFs 267 International ETFs 269 Summary 275 Conclusion 279 Why It's Called Visual Investing 279 The Media Will Always Tell You Why Later 279 Media Views Keep Shifting 280 Visual Analysis Is More User Friendly 280 Keep It Simple 280 Visual Tools Are Universal 281 The Stock Market Leads the Economy 281 Prices Lead the Fundamentals 282 Sector Investing 282 Exchange-Traded Funds 283 A Year After the 2007 Top 283 Warning Signs were Clearly Visible 284 Appendix A Getting Started 285 Find a Good Web Site 285 Use the Readers Choice Awards 285 StockCharts.com 286 Chart School 286 Online Bookstore 287 Investor's Business Daily 288 Stock Scans 288 Bullish Percent Indexes 289 DecisionPoint.com 294 McClellan Breadth Indicators 294 Appendix B Japanese Candlesticks 295 Candlestick Patterns 297 Bullish Engulfing Pattern 298 Stock Scan Candlestick Patterns 300 Recommended Reading 300 Appendix C Point-and-Figure Charting 301 Triple and Quadruple Signals 302 How to Vary P&F Charts for Sensitivity 304 There's No Doubt about P&F Signals 305 Recommended Reading 306 Index 307
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