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Success of commander decision making at the operational level of war is largely determined by the timeliness and quality of information made available to the commander during the planning and execution of a military operation or campaign. Assessment at the operational level of war is the primary source of information for the commander during decision making. The effectiveness of the current operational assessment process suffers due to the absence of a theoretical construct of which military strategists and planners are able to develop a meaningful strategy. This paper proposes a theoretical construct for operational assessment based on the presence of critical variables between military actions and desired effects. This theoretical construct is based on several existing theories; modeling complex-adaptive systems and shaping behavior within complex-adaptive systems. The theory on modeling complex-adaptive systems presents that the behavior of complex adaptive systems are anticipatable through the patterns of regularities that emerge by studying the cumulative behavior of elements contained within the system.
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