Uncertainty in Industrial Practice

A Guide to Quantitative Uncertainty Management
Herausgegeben:de Rocquigny, Etienne; Devictor, Nicolas; Tarantola, Stefano

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

There is a growing demand from institutional bodies for the justification of industrial methodologies and practices (e.g. safety criteria, environmental protection and control, maintenance and design optimization). Previous books in this area have either been too theoretical, or too specific in their scope. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a practical reference on uncertainty treatment for all types of industry, enabling the adoption of universal practices. The book is built upon a wide range of examples taken from within relevant industries, including nuclear technology, aeronautics, civil structures, and mechanical engineering.

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Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers.

Uncertainty in Industrial Practice:

_ Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework.

_ Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective.

_ Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints.

_ Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods.

_ Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries.

This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Wiley & Sons
• 1. Auflage
• Seitenzahl: 364
• Erscheinungstermin: 1. Juni 2008
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 231mm x 157mm x 23mm
• Gewicht: 660g
• ISBN-13: 9780470994474
• ISBN-10: 0470994479
• Artikelnr.: 23820994

Autorenporträt

Editors: Etienne de Rocquigny, Electricite de France, R&D (Senior Research Fellow). Nicolas Devictor, Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique. Stefano Tarantola, J.R.C. Ispra. Authors: The 10 members of the Uncertainty Project Group, part of ESReDA: European Safety, Reliability and Data Association.

Inhaltsangabe

Contents Preface Contributors Acknowledgements Introduction Notation -
Acronyms and abbreviations Part I Common Methodological Framework 1
Introducing the common methodological framework References 2 Positioning of
the case studies and study characteristics Part II Case Studies 3
CO2emissions: estimating uncertainties in practice for power plants
References 4 Hydrocarbon exploration: decision-support through uncertainty
treatment References 5 Determination of the risk due to personal electronic
devices (PEDs) carried out on radio-navigation systems aboard aircraft
References 6 Safety assessment of a radioactive high-level waste repositor
- comparison of dose and peak dose References 7 A cash flow statistical
model for airframe accessory maintenance contracts References 8 Uncertainty
and reliability study of a creep law to assess the fuel cladding behaviour
of PWR spent fuel assemblies during interim dry storage References 9
Radiological protection and maintenance References 10 Partial safety
factors to deal with uncertainties in slope stability of river dykes
References 11 Probabilistic assessment of fatigue life References 12
Reliability modelling in early design stages using the Dempster-Shafer
Theory of Evidence References Part III Methodological Review and
Recommendations 13 What does uncertainty management mean in an industrial
context? References 14 Uncertainty settings and natures of uncertainty
References 15 Overall approach References 16 Uncertainty modelling methods
References 17 Uncertainty propagation methods References 18 Sensitivity
analysis methods References 19 Presentation in a deterministic format
References 20 Recommendations on the overall process in practice References
Conclusion Appendices Appendix A A selection of codes and standards
Appendix B A selection of tools and websites Appendix C Towards
non-probabilistic settings: promises and industrial challenges Index