M. Granger Morgan, Millett Granger Morgan

Uncertainty

A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• Seitenzahl: 346
• Erscheinungstermin: 9. August 2010
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 229mm x 152mm x 21mm
• Gewicht: 562g
• ISBN-13: 9780521427449
• ISBN-10: 0521427444
• Artikelnr.: 21381167

Inhaltsangabe

Preface
1. Introduction
2. Recent milestones
3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis
4. The nature and sources of uncertainty
5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation
6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty
7. Performing probability assessment
8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty
9. The graphic communication of uncertainty
10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis
11. Large and complex models
12. The value of knowing how little you know
Index.