Ole J. Forsberg

Understanding Elections through Statistics

Polling, Prediction, and Testing

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Regarding elections and polls, it explores this random phenomenon from three primary points of view: predicting election outcome using opinion polls, testing outcome using government-reported data, and exploring election data to better understand the people.

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Produktdetails

• Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
• Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd
• 2 ed
• Seitenzahl: 334
• Erscheinungstermin: 31. Oktober 2024
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 156mm x 234mm x 24mm
• Gewicht: 542g
• ISBN-13: 9781032621869
• ISBN-10: 1032621869
• Artikelnr.: 70371618

Autorenporträt

Ole J. Forsberg, PhD, is an Associate Professor of Mathematics-Statistics and the Associate Dean of Faculty Affairs at Knox College in Galesburg, IL. He received a PhD in Political Science from the University of Tennessee-Knoxville in 2006, concentrating in International Relations, War, and Terrorism. After finishing his dissertation, Forsberg began a deeper investigation of the statistical techniques he used there. As a result of the ensuing embarrassment, he began formal graduate statistical studies at the Johns Hopkins University (MSE, 2010) and concluded them with a PhD in Statistics from Oklahoma State University in 2014 (Go Pokes!). His statistics dissertation explored and applied statistical techniques to testing elections for violations of the "free and fair" democratic claim. His research agenda lies in extending and applying statistical methods to elections with the goal of drawing as much out of the available information as possible. . . whether this is in terms of understanding political polls, predicting election outcomes, or testing elections for unfairness.

Inhaltsangabe

1. Introduction to Polling. 2. Simple Random Sampling. 3. Interval
Estimation. 4. Stratified Sampling. 5. The Bayesian Solution. 6.
Aggregating Polls. 7. Going Beyond the Two-Race. 8. Testing Elections:
Digit Tests. 9. Testing Elections: Regression Tests. 10. Election Polling
Analysis: Brexit Vote, 2016. 11. Election Analysis: Collier County. 12.
System Analysis: Sri Lanka since 1994. 13. An Afterword: Biases in Polling.

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1. Polling 101
2. Polling 399
3. Combining Polls
4. In-Depth Analysis: Brexit 2016
5. Digit Tests
6. Differential Invalidation
7. Considering Geography
8. In-Depth Analysis: Sri Lanka since 1994

Rezensionen

"This unique book, by an author who is both a Statistician and Political Scientist, discusses the statistical theory of two important aspects of elections. The first half is an in-depth introduction to the classical statistical theory of polling, including estimators, confidence intervals, and stratified sampling. It comes complete with snippets of R code and many concrete examples, including two cases that challenged pollsters: the 2016 US presidential election and the 2016 Brexit vote. The second half concerns statistical methods for after the fact detection of fraudulent elections. It includes an in-depth treatment of methods based on the Benford distribution, but also methods based on classical regression analysis. Again numerous pieces of R code and concrete examples are provided."
- E. Arthur Robinson, Jr., Professor of Mathematics, George Washington University

"This book has multiple layers that provides flexibility in its use. It makes polling and the statistical issues understandable for those who have little knowledge of statistics beyond the elementary course material. It includes enough of the mathematical underpinnings so that a student wishing to delve deeper into the material has that opportunity. It treats the material with cleverness and wryness that transforms the topic, usually thought of as "dry" by many people, into an interesting and compelling read. The use of maps and real-world examples help make the issues relevant and practical. It should be required reading for anyone studying political science and polling/elections, or anyone with a methodological background wishing to understand these topics at a greater depth."
- Mark Payton, Rocky Vista University

"The book contains a list of 145 most recent references and a detailed index. Many exercises and appendices with mathematical derivations are given at the end of chapters. Numerous R scripts are presented throughout the whole monograph, providing ready-to-run or make-it-yourself tools for practical implementation of all the techniques. The book can be interesting not only to students in political sciences and statistical methods but to a wider audience interested to understand the results and checkup fairness of elections."
- Stan Lipovetsky, Technometrics January 2021