Joseph H. Ellis

Ahead of the Curve (eBook, ePUB)

A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

• Format: ePub

Produktbeschreibung

Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Harvard Business Review Press
• Seitenzahl: 304
• Erscheinungstermin: 11. Oktober 2005
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781633691223
• Artikelnr.: 43831550

Autorenporträt

Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Streets #1 retail-industry analyst.

Inhaltsangabe

Preface and Acknowledgements
Part 1: Seeing The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos
Chapter 1 Seeing Around Economic Corners
Chapter 2 Making Sense of the Economy
Chapter 3 Getting Out of Harm s Way: Redefining Economic Downturns
Chapter 4 The ROCET Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession
Chapter 5 Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out
Chapter 6 The Nature of Leading Indicators
Part 2: Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market
Chapter 7 Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy
Chapter 8 Consumer Spending and the Stock Market
Part 3: Forecasting Consumer Spending
Chapter 9 Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology
Chapter 10 Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy
Chapter 11 Employment and Unemployment: The Economy s Deceptive Laggard
Chapter 12 Interest rates, The Fed s Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation
Chapter 13 Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward
Chapter 14 Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link
Part 4: From Theory to Practice
Chapter 15 Drilling Down: Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company
Chapter 16 Conclusion: Making Economics Happen
Appendix 1 Credit: Consumer Spending s Swing Factor
Appendix 2 Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.?
Appendix 3 Major Industry Data Series