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This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, localsocio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.
"A highly original and informative book, making a substantive contribution both to the quantitative documentation and the theoretical analysis of civil wars ... . the book is of great interest to every economist and historian who wants to learn about the theoretical and empirical analysis of civil wars and have a fresh and objective birds-eye view on the Greek Civil War." (Michel S. Zouboulakis, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 29 (3), 2018)