This book examines the relationship between demographic growth and economic development in eight Arab countries. Despite a slowdown in demographic growth, as a result of the change in the age structure of the population, the labour force is increasing rapidly. In other parts of the world, similar developments have enhanced economic growth. In the Arab world, however, many of the opportunities presented by demographic transition are being lost, resulting in serious threats to the political stability of the region. The main reason for this is that the region has missed out on industrialization. The book goes beyond conventional analysis to ask two closely related questions. The first is, why were governments so slow in tackling stability? The second is, why has the response been similar in apparently different economies? Answers are provided using new literature in economics and economic history.
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'Rivlin's analysis of the Arab economies is the most thorough and astute available today, offering exceptional insights into the interactions of history, politics, and economics across the region. Rivlin focuses our attention on how the Arab world has squandered the 'demographic gift' of a rapidly growing work force and shrinking portion of dependents. He shows how political conservatism has not only been supported by oil revenues and remittances, it has blocked the reforms needed to promote modern education and rapid industrialization. As a result, rapid labor force growth has not been a source of rising productivity, but of rising unemployment, political restiveness, and radicalism.' Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University