Barton Biggs
Biggs on Finance, Economics, and the Stock Market (eBook, ePUB)
Barton's Market Chronicles from the Morgan Stanley Years
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Barton Biggs
Biggs on Finance, Economics, and the Stock Market (eBook, ePUB)
Barton's Market Chronicles from the Morgan Stanley Years
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Released to the public for the first time, writings by the incomparable Barton Biggs
Long considered one of the best brains on Wall Street, Barton Biggs acquired the stature of a legend within his lifetime. Among his many coups, he accurately called the rise and fall of the dot-com market, and was an energetic promoter of emerging markets, including China, well before American businesses began flocking there—and he made vast fortunes for his clients, in the process.
But, as this fascinating book confirms, it wasn't Biggs's genius as a market analyst and hedge fund manager alone that made…mehr
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Released to the public for the first time, writings by the incomparable Barton Biggs
Long considered one of the best brains on Wall Street, Barton Biggs acquired the stature of a legend within his lifetime. Among his many coups, he accurately called the rise and fall of the dot-com market, and was an energetic promoter of emerging markets, including China, well before American businesses began flocking there—and he made vast fortunes for his clients, in the process.
But, as this fascinating book confirms, it wasn't Biggs's genius as a market analyst and hedge fund manager alone that made him special. The product of a keen and broad-ranging intellect in full command of his subjects—and the English language—the letters compiled in this volume leave no doubt that Barton Biggs was one of the most interesting observers of Wall Street, the financial world, and the human comedy, ever to set pen to paper.
Long considered one of the best brains on Wall Street, Barton Biggs acquired the stature of a legend within his lifetime. Among his many coups, he accurately called the rise and fall of the dot-com market, and was an energetic promoter of emerging markets, including China, well before American businesses began flocking there—and he made vast fortunes for his clients, in the process.
But, as this fascinating book confirms, it wasn't Biggs's genius as a market analyst and hedge fund manager alone that made him special. The product of a keen and broad-ranging intellect in full command of his subjects—and the English language—the letters compiled in this volume leave no doubt that Barton Biggs was one of the most interesting observers of Wall Street, the financial world, and the human comedy, ever to set pen to paper.
- Released from Morgan Stanley's archives and made public for the first time, the letters compiled in this volume add new luster to Biggs's reputation as a first-class finance author
- Address the most essential aspects of high-frequency trading, from formulation of ideas to performance evaluation
- Shares Biggs's fascinating insights and uncannily accurate predictions about an array of economic and financial topics, liberally peppered with historical references and wry humor
- Organized thematically, the letters showcase Barton Biggs's observations on finance, economics and the stock market, from 1980 to 2003
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
- Erscheinungstermin: 19. März 2014
- Englisch
- ISBN-13: 9781118654866
- Artikelnr.: 40712474
- Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
- Erscheinungstermin: 19. März 2014
- Englisch
- ISBN-13: 9781118654866
- Artikelnr.: 40712474
BARTON BIGGS was a well-known figure in the investment world. Before running multi-billion- dollar hedge fund Traxis Partners, Biggs spent three decades as a senior partner at Morgan Stanley. Biggs was selected 10 times for Institutional Investor's "All-America Research Team," and made over 300 television appearances before he passed away in 2012.
Introduction xi
Section 1: What’s Old is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire? 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43
The New New Thing 46
When? 50
Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55
The Last Supper 55
The Beam That Broke the Camel’s Back 59
Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios? 61
Section 1E: Geopolitics 65
Popcorn and the Decline of the West 65
Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986 69
Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75
The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings 78
Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81
Diary of Saddam Hussein 83
Islamic Fundamentalism 86
Section 2: Economics and Investing 91
Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95
The Evolution of the Supply Side 95
The Tax Cut Misconception 98
Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward 100
The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103
The Old President with the Right Intuitions 116
What Kind of People are We? 119
Emerging Markets are Only for the Brave 122
Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics 127
Discipline and Reading 127
How to Lose the Winner’s Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133
Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy 135
Contrarianism 135
Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun 140
God is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143
Beware of Linear Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146
How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory He Says Guides Him 148
The Horse Whisperers 151
Mr. Market is a Manic-Depressive 155
Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159
Filthy Lucre 159
The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162
Jewelry is a Girl’s Best Friend 165
Section 2E: Market Predictions 169
First Class on the Titanic 169
“It’s a Bull Market, You Know . . .” 171
Beware the Conventional Wisdom . . . 175
Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180
“Even Monkeys Fall from Trees” 183
Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188
Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197
Buy Hong Kong 197
Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204
China: “The New Emperors” and the Risk/Reward Equation 208
How Fast is China Really Growing? 212
China Tales 215
A China Traveler’s Tales 218
China Cooling, Us Heating 221
Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225
India for the 1990s 228
Great Expectations 231
India: You Have to Go There to Understand 234
Section 3C: Japan 237
More on Japan 237
Long Trips 240
Japan Inc. Wants a Higher Yen 242
Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245
Section 3D: Europe, Middle East, Africa 249
In the Eye of the Storm 249
You Gotta Own Some Germany 253
Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259
South America for the Nineties 259
No More Siestas 263
Argentina: The Magic Show 268
Buy Mexico and Brazil 271
Case Study: Peru 275
Mexico Will Make It 278
Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle? 282
Brazil: An Act of Faith 286
Section 3F: East Asia 289
The Best-Managed Country in the World 289
Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293
Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302
Section 3G: Emerging Markets Roundup 307
A Bigger, Faster World 307
Jewel in the Portfolio 311
Section 4: Characters and Culture 315
Section 4A: Lunches with Luminaries 317
Investment Alchemy 317
Lunch with the Global Investor 321
Vanity Fair 325
Heroine Worship 327
Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir John 330
Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333
The Summer of 83 333
The Trigger Comes Back for Lunch 336
U3 or “Many Shall Be Restored That are Now Fallen and . . .” 339
The Trigger Finds an Arb 341
The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347
A Country of His Own 350
Talking Technology with Jim the Trigger 354
Section 5: Travelogues 359
Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364
Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370
Japanese Landscapes 373
The Snows of Kilimanjaro 377
Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381
Section 6: Books and Letters 385
Section 6A: Book Reviews 387
“Groupthink” and What to Do about It 387
Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391
The Alchemy of Finance 395
I Wish We Didn’t Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398
Noise and Babble 401
Section 6B: Biggs’s Reading List 405
Too Much to Read 405
“Books, We Know, are a Substantial World . . .” 408
Section 1: What’s Old is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire? 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43
The New New Thing 46
When? 50
Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55
The Last Supper 55
The Beam That Broke the Camel’s Back 59
Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios? 61
Section 1E: Geopolitics 65
Popcorn and the Decline of the West 65
Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986 69
Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75
The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings 78
Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81
Diary of Saddam Hussein 83
Islamic Fundamentalism 86
Section 2: Economics and Investing 91
Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95
The Evolution of the Supply Side 95
The Tax Cut Misconception 98
Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward 100
The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103
The Old President with the Right Intuitions 116
What Kind of People are We? 119
Emerging Markets are Only for the Brave 122
Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics 127
Discipline and Reading 127
How to Lose the Winner’s Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133
Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy 135
Contrarianism 135
Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun 140
God is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143
Beware of Linear Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146
How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory He Says Guides Him 148
The Horse Whisperers 151
Mr. Market is a Manic-Depressive 155
Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159
Filthy Lucre 159
The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162
Jewelry is a Girl’s Best Friend 165
Section 2E: Market Predictions 169
First Class on the Titanic 169
“It’s a Bull Market, You Know . . .” 171
Beware the Conventional Wisdom . . . 175
Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180
“Even Monkeys Fall from Trees” 183
Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188
Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197
Buy Hong Kong 197
Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204
China: “The New Emperors” and the Risk/Reward Equation 208
How Fast is China Really Growing? 212
China Tales 215
A China Traveler’s Tales 218
China Cooling, Us Heating 221
Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225
India for the 1990s 228
Great Expectations 231
India: You Have to Go There to Understand 234
Section 3C: Japan 237
More on Japan 237
Long Trips 240
Japan Inc. Wants a Higher Yen 242
Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245
Section 3D: Europe, Middle East, Africa 249
In the Eye of the Storm 249
You Gotta Own Some Germany 253
Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259
South America for the Nineties 259
No More Siestas 263
Argentina: The Magic Show 268
Buy Mexico and Brazil 271
Case Study: Peru 275
Mexico Will Make It 278
Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle? 282
Brazil: An Act of Faith 286
Section 3F: East Asia 289
The Best-Managed Country in the World 289
Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293
Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302
Section 3G: Emerging Markets Roundup 307
A Bigger, Faster World 307
Jewel in the Portfolio 311
Section 4: Characters and Culture 315
Section 4A: Lunches with Luminaries 317
Investment Alchemy 317
Lunch with the Global Investor 321
Vanity Fair 325
Heroine Worship 327
Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir John 330
Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333
The Summer of 83 333
The Trigger Comes Back for Lunch 336
U3 or “Many Shall Be Restored That are Now Fallen and . . .” 339
The Trigger Finds an Arb 341
The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347
A Country of His Own 350
Talking Technology with Jim the Trigger 354
Section 5: Travelogues 359
Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364
Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370
Japanese Landscapes 373
The Snows of Kilimanjaro 377
Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381
Section 6: Books and Letters 385
Section 6A: Book Reviews 387
“Groupthink” and What to Do about It 387
Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391
The Alchemy of Finance 395
I Wish We Didn’t Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398
Noise and Babble 401
Section 6B: Biggs’s Reading List 405
Too Much to Read 405
“Books, We Know, are a Substantial World . . .” 408
Introduction xi Section 1: What's Old is New Again 1 Section 1A: Market
History and the Long View 3 In Search of History and a Word Processor That
Works 3 Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5 The Phony War 9 Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16 Section 1B: Fire and
Ice 21 The Fire and Ice Debate 21 Ice Creeps On 26 A World Lit Only by
Fire? 29 Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33 Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36 Anarchy 39 Life on the Good Ship Swine 43 The New New Thing
46 When? 50 Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55 The Last Supper 55 The
Beam That Broke the Camel's Back 59 Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher
P/E Ratios? 61 Section 1E: Geopolitics 65 Popcorn and the Decline of the
West 65 Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev--Sunday, May 4, 1986 69 Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75 The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful
and Wishful Musings 78 Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81 Diary of
Saddam Hussein 83 Islamic Fundamentalism 86 Section 2: Economics and
Investing 91 Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95 The Evolution of the
Supply Side 95 The Tax Cut Misconception 98 Running the Movie of the
Seventies Backward 100 The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103 The Old President
with the Right Intuitions 116 What Kind of People Are We? 119 Emerging
Markets Are Only for the Brave 122 Section 2B: Investment Discipline &
Tactics 127 Discipline and Reading 127 How to Lose the Winner's Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133 Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing
Philosophy 135 Contrarianism 135 Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun
140 God Is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143 Beware of Linear
Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146 How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory
He Says Guides Him 148 The Horse Whisperers 151 Mr. Market Is a
Manic-Depressive 155 Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159 Filthy Lucre
159 The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162 Jewelry Is
a Girl's Best Friend 165 Section 2E: Market Predictions 169 First Class on
the Titanic 169 "It's a Bull Market, You Know . . ." 171 Beware the
Conventional Wisdom . . . 175 Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180 "Even Monkeys Fall from Trees"
183 Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188 Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197 Buy Hong Kong 197 Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204 China: "The New Emperors" and the Risk/Reward Equation
208 How Fast Is China Really Growing? 212 China Tales 215 A China
Traveler's Tales 218 China Cooling, Us Heating 221 Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225 India for the
1990s 228 Great Expectations 231 India: You Have to Go There to Understand
234 Section 3C: Japan 237 More on Japan 237 Long Trips 240 Japan Inc. Wants
a Higher Yen 242 Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245 Section 3D:
Europe, Middle East, Africa 249 In the Eye of the Storm 249 You Gotta Own
Some Germany 253 Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259 South America for the Nineties 259 No More
Siestas 263 Argentina: The Magic Show 268 Buy Mexico and Brazil 271 Case
Study: Peru 275 Mexico Will Make It 278 Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle?
282 Brazil: An Act of Faith 286 Section 3F: East Asia 289 The Best-Managed
Country in the World 289 Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293 Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299 Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302 Section 3G:
Emerging Markets Roundup 307 A Bigger, Faster World 307 Jewel in the
Portfolio 311 Section 4: Characters and Culture 315 Section 4A: Lunches
with Luminaries 317 Investment Alchemy 317 Lunch with the Global Investor
321 Vanity Fair 325 Heroine Worship 327 Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir
John 330 Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333 The Summer of 83 333 The Trigger
Comes Back for Lunch 336 U3 or "Many Shall Be Restored That Are Now Fallen
and . . ." 339 The Trigger Finds an Arb 341 The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347 A Country of His Own 350 Talking
Technology with Jim the Trigger 354 Section 5: Travelogues 359 Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364 Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370 Japanese Landscapes 373 The Snows of
Kilimanjaro 377 Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381 Section 6:
Books and Letters 385 Section 6A: Book Reviews 387 "Groupthink" and What to
Do about It 387 Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391 The Alchemy of
Finance 395 I Wish We Didn't Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398 Noise
and Babble 401 Section 6B: Biggs's Reading List 405 Too Much to Read 405
"Books, We Know, Are a Substantial World . . ." 408
History and the Long View 3 In Search of History and a Word Processor That
Works 3 Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5 The Phony War 9 Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16 Section 1B: Fire and
Ice 21 The Fire and Ice Debate 21 Ice Creeps On 26 A World Lit Only by
Fire? 29 Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33 Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36 Anarchy 39 Life on the Good Ship Swine 43 The New New Thing
46 When? 50 Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55 The Last Supper 55 The
Beam That Broke the Camel's Back 59 Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher
P/E Ratios? 61 Section 1E: Geopolitics 65 Popcorn and the Decline of the
West 65 Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev--Sunday, May 4, 1986 69 Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75 The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful
and Wishful Musings 78 Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81 Diary of
Saddam Hussein 83 Islamic Fundamentalism 86 Section 2: Economics and
Investing 91 Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95 The Evolution of the
Supply Side 95 The Tax Cut Misconception 98 Running the Movie of the
Seventies Backward 100 The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103 The Old President
with the Right Intuitions 116 What Kind of People Are We? 119 Emerging
Markets Are Only for the Brave 122 Section 2B: Investment Discipline &
Tactics 127 Discipline and Reading 127 How to Lose the Winner's Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133 Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing
Philosophy 135 Contrarianism 135 Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun
140 God Is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143 Beware of Linear
Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146 How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory
He Says Guides Him 148 The Horse Whisperers 151 Mr. Market Is a
Manic-Depressive 155 Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159 Filthy Lucre
159 The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162 Jewelry Is
a Girl's Best Friend 165 Section 2E: Market Predictions 169 First Class on
the Titanic 169 "It's a Bull Market, You Know . . ." 171 Beware the
Conventional Wisdom . . . 175 Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180 "Even Monkeys Fall from Trees"
183 Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188 Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197 Buy Hong Kong 197 Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204 China: "The New Emperors" and the Risk/Reward Equation
208 How Fast Is China Really Growing? 212 China Tales 215 A China
Traveler's Tales 218 China Cooling, Us Heating 221 Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225 India for the
1990s 228 Great Expectations 231 India: You Have to Go There to Understand
234 Section 3C: Japan 237 More on Japan 237 Long Trips 240 Japan Inc. Wants
a Higher Yen 242 Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245 Section 3D:
Europe, Middle East, Africa 249 In the Eye of the Storm 249 You Gotta Own
Some Germany 253 Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259 South America for the Nineties 259 No More
Siestas 263 Argentina: The Magic Show 268 Buy Mexico and Brazil 271 Case
Study: Peru 275 Mexico Will Make It 278 Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle?
282 Brazil: An Act of Faith 286 Section 3F: East Asia 289 The Best-Managed
Country in the World 289 Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293 Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299 Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302 Section 3G:
Emerging Markets Roundup 307 A Bigger, Faster World 307 Jewel in the
Portfolio 311 Section 4: Characters and Culture 315 Section 4A: Lunches
with Luminaries 317 Investment Alchemy 317 Lunch with the Global Investor
321 Vanity Fair 325 Heroine Worship 327 Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir
John 330 Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333 The Summer of 83 333 The Trigger
Comes Back for Lunch 336 U3 or "Many Shall Be Restored That Are Now Fallen
and . . ." 339 The Trigger Finds an Arb 341 The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347 A Country of His Own 350 Talking
Technology with Jim the Trigger 354 Section 5: Travelogues 359 Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364 Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370 Japanese Landscapes 373 The Snows of
Kilimanjaro 377 Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381 Section 6:
Books and Letters 385 Section 6A: Book Reviews 387 "Groupthink" and What to
Do about It 387 Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391 The Alchemy of
Finance 395 I Wish We Didn't Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398 Noise
and Babble 401 Section 6B: Biggs's Reading List 405 Too Much to Read 405
"Books, We Know, Are a Substantial World . . ." 408
Introduction xi
Section 1: What’s Old is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire? 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43
The New New Thing 46
When? 50
Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55
The Last Supper 55
The Beam That Broke the Camel’s Back 59
Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios? 61
Section 1E: Geopolitics 65
Popcorn and the Decline of the West 65
Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986 69
Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75
The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings 78
Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81
Diary of Saddam Hussein 83
Islamic Fundamentalism 86
Section 2: Economics and Investing 91
Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95
The Evolution of the Supply Side 95
The Tax Cut Misconception 98
Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward 100
The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103
The Old President with the Right Intuitions 116
What Kind of People are We? 119
Emerging Markets are Only for the Brave 122
Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics 127
Discipline and Reading 127
How to Lose the Winner’s Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133
Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy 135
Contrarianism 135
Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun 140
God is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143
Beware of Linear Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146
How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory He Says Guides Him 148
The Horse Whisperers 151
Mr. Market is a Manic-Depressive 155
Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159
Filthy Lucre 159
The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162
Jewelry is a Girl’s Best Friend 165
Section 2E: Market Predictions 169
First Class on the Titanic 169
“It’s a Bull Market, You Know . . .” 171
Beware the Conventional Wisdom . . . 175
Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180
“Even Monkeys Fall from Trees” 183
Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188
Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197
Buy Hong Kong 197
Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204
China: “The New Emperors” and the Risk/Reward Equation 208
How Fast is China Really Growing? 212
China Tales 215
A China Traveler’s Tales 218
China Cooling, Us Heating 221
Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225
India for the 1990s 228
Great Expectations 231
India: You Have to Go There to Understand 234
Section 3C: Japan 237
More on Japan 237
Long Trips 240
Japan Inc. Wants a Higher Yen 242
Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245
Section 3D: Europe, Middle East, Africa 249
In the Eye of the Storm 249
You Gotta Own Some Germany 253
Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259
South America for the Nineties 259
No More Siestas 263
Argentina: The Magic Show 268
Buy Mexico and Brazil 271
Case Study: Peru 275
Mexico Will Make It 278
Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle? 282
Brazil: An Act of Faith 286
Section 3F: East Asia 289
The Best-Managed Country in the World 289
Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293
Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302
Section 3G: Emerging Markets Roundup 307
A Bigger, Faster World 307
Jewel in the Portfolio 311
Section 4: Characters and Culture 315
Section 4A: Lunches with Luminaries 317
Investment Alchemy 317
Lunch with the Global Investor 321
Vanity Fair 325
Heroine Worship 327
Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir John 330
Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333
The Summer of 83 333
The Trigger Comes Back for Lunch 336
U3 or “Many Shall Be Restored That are Now Fallen and . . .” 339
The Trigger Finds an Arb 341
The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347
A Country of His Own 350
Talking Technology with Jim the Trigger 354
Section 5: Travelogues 359
Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364
Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370
Japanese Landscapes 373
The Snows of Kilimanjaro 377
Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381
Section 6: Books and Letters 385
Section 6A: Book Reviews 387
“Groupthink” and What to Do about It 387
Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391
The Alchemy of Finance 395
I Wish We Didn’t Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398
Noise and Babble 401
Section 6B: Biggs’s Reading List 405
Too Much to Read 405
“Books, We Know, are a Substantial World . . .” 408
Section 1: What’s Old is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire? 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43
The New New Thing 46
When? 50
Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55
The Last Supper 55
The Beam That Broke the Camel’s Back 59
Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios? 61
Section 1E: Geopolitics 65
Popcorn and the Decline of the West 65
Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986 69
Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75
The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings 78
Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81
Diary of Saddam Hussein 83
Islamic Fundamentalism 86
Section 2: Economics and Investing 91
Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95
The Evolution of the Supply Side 95
The Tax Cut Misconception 98
Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward 100
The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103
The Old President with the Right Intuitions 116
What Kind of People are We? 119
Emerging Markets are Only for the Brave 122
Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics 127
Discipline and Reading 127
How to Lose the Winner’s Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133
Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy 135
Contrarianism 135
Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun 140
God is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143
Beware of Linear Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146
How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory He Says Guides Him 148
The Horse Whisperers 151
Mr. Market is a Manic-Depressive 155
Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159
Filthy Lucre 159
The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162
Jewelry is a Girl’s Best Friend 165
Section 2E: Market Predictions 169
First Class on the Titanic 169
“It’s a Bull Market, You Know . . .” 171
Beware the Conventional Wisdom . . . 175
Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180
“Even Monkeys Fall from Trees” 183
Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188
Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197
Buy Hong Kong 197
Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204
China: “The New Emperors” and the Risk/Reward Equation 208
How Fast is China Really Growing? 212
China Tales 215
A China Traveler’s Tales 218
China Cooling, Us Heating 221
Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225
India for the 1990s 228
Great Expectations 231
India: You Have to Go There to Understand 234
Section 3C: Japan 237
More on Japan 237
Long Trips 240
Japan Inc. Wants a Higher Yen 242
Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245
Section 3D: Europe, Middle East, Africa 249
In the Eye of the Storm 249
You Gotta Own Some Germany 253
Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259
South America for the Nineties 259
No More Siestas 263
Argentina: The Magic Show 268
Buy Mexico and Brazil 271
Case Study: Peru 275
Mexico Will Make It 278
Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle? 282
Brazil: An Act of Faith 286
Section 3F: East Asia 289
The Best-Managed Country in the World 289
Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293
Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302
Section 3G: Emerging Markets Roundup 307
A Bigger, Faster World 307
Jewel in the Portfolio 311
Section 4: Characters and Culture 315
Section 4A: Lunches with Luminaries 317
Investment Alchemy 317
Lunch with the Global Investor 321
Vanity Fair 325
Heroine Worship 327
Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir John 330
Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333
The Summer of 83 333
The Trigger Comes Back for Lunch 336
U3 or “Many Shall Be Restored That are Now Fallen and . . .” 339
The Trigger Finds an Arb 341
The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347
A Country of His Own 350
Talking Technology with Jim the Trigger 354
Section 5: Travelogues 359
Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364
Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370
Japanese Landscapes 373
The Snows of Kilimanjaro 377
Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381
Section 6: Books and Letters 385
Section 6A: Book Reviews 387
“Groupthink” and What to Do about It 387
Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391
The Alchemy of Finance 395
I Wish We Didn’t Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398
Noise and Babble 401
Section 6B: Biggs’s Reading List 405
Too Much to Read 405
“Books, We Know, are a Substantial World . . .” 408
Introduction xi Section 1: What's Old is New Again 1 Section 1A: Market
History and the Long View 3 In Search of History and a Word Processor That
Works 3 Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5 The Phony War 9 Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16 Section 1B: Fire and
Ice 21 The Fire and Ice Debate 21 Ice Creeps On 26 A World Lit Only by
Fire? 29 Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33 Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36 Anarchy 39 Life on the Good Ship Swine 43 The New New Thing
46 When? 50 Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55 The Last Supper 55 The
Beam That Broke the Camel's Back 59 Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher
P/E Ratios? 61 Section 1E: Geopolitics 65 Popcorn and the Decline of the
West 65 Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev--Sunday, May 4, 1986 69 Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75 The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful
and Wishful Musings 78 Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81 Diary of
Saddam Hussein 83 Islamic Fundamentalism 86 Section 2: Economics and
Investing 91 Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95 The Evolution of the
Supply Side 95 The Tax Cut Misconception 98 Running the Movie of the
Seventies Backward 100 The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103 The Old President
with the Right Intuitions 116 What Kind of People Are We? 119 Emerging
Markets Are Only for the Brave 122 Section 2B: Investment Discipline &
Tactics 127 Discipline and Reading 127 How to Lose the Winner's Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133 Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing
Philosophy 135 Contrarianism 135 Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun
140 God Is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143 Beware of Linear
Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146 How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory
He Says Guides Him 148 The Horse Whisperers 151 Mr. Market Is a
Manic-Depressive 155 Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159 Filthy Lucre
159 The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162 Jewelry Is
a Girl's Best Friend 165 Section 2E: Market Predictions 169 First Class on
the Titanic 169 "It's a Bull Market, You Know . . ." 171 Beware the
Conventional Wisdom . . . 175 Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180 "Even Monkeys Fall from Trees"
183 Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188 Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197 Buy Hong Kong 197 Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204 China: "The New Emperors" and the Risk/Reward Equation
208 How Fast Is China Really Growing? 212 China Tales 215 A China
Traveler's Tales 218 China Cooling, Us Heating 221 Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225 India for the
1990s 228 Great Expectations 231 India: You Have to Go There to Understand
234 Section 3C: Japan 237 More on Japan 237 Long Trips 240 Japan Inc. Wants
a Higher Yen 242 Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245 Section 3D:
Europe, Middle East, Africa 249 In the Eye of the Storm 249 You Gotta Own
Some Germany 253 Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259 South America for the Nineties 259 No More
Siestas 263 Argentina: The Magic Show 268 Buy Mexico and Brazil 271 Case
Study: Peru 275 Mexico Will Make It 278 Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle?
282 Brazil: An Act of Faith 286 Section 3F: East Asia 289 The Best-Managed
Country in the World 289 Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293 Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299 Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302 Section 3G:
Emerging Markets Roundup 307 A Bigger, Faster World 307 Jewel in the
Portfolio 311 Section 4: Characters and Culture 315 Section 4A: Lunches
with Luminaries 317 Investment Alchemy 317 Lunch with the Global Investor
321 Vanity Fair 325 Heroine Worship 327 Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir
John 330 Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333 The Summer of 83 333 The Trigger
Comes Back for Lunch 336 U3 or "Many Shall Be Restored That Are Now Fallen
and . . ." 339 The Trigger Finds an Arb 341 The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347 A Country of His Own 350 Talking
Technology with Jim the Trigger 354 Section 5: Travelogues 359 Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364 Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370 Japanese Landscapes 373 The Snows of
Kilimanjaro 377 Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381 Section 6:
Books and Letters 385 Section 6A: Book Reviews 387 "Groupthink" and What to
Do about It 387 Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391 The Alchemy of
Finance 395 I Wish We Didn't Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398 Noise
and Babble 401 Section 6B: Biggs's Reading List 405 Too Much to Read 405
"Books, We Know, Are a Substantial World . . ." 408
History and the Long View 3 In Search of History and a Word Processor That
Works 3 Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5 The Phony War 9 Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16 Section 1B: Fire and
Ice 21 The Fire and Ice Debate 21 Ice Creeps On 26 A World Lit Only by
Fire? 29 Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33 Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36 Anarchy 39 Life on the Good Ship Swine 43 The New New Thing
46 When? 50 Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55 The Last Supper 55 The
Beam That Broke the Camel's Back 59 Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher
P/E Ratios? 61 Section 1E: Geopolitics 65 Popcorn and the Decline of the
West 65 Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev--Sunday, May 4, 1986 69 Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75 The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful
and Wishful Musings 78 Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81 Diary of
Saddam Hussein 83 Islamic Fundamentalism 86 Section 2: Economics and
Investing 91 Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95 The Evolution of the
Supply Side 95 The Tax Cut Misconception 98 Running the Movie of the
Seventies Backward 100 The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103 The Old President
with the Right Intuitions 116 What Kind of People Are We? 119 Emerging
Markets Are Only for the Brave 122 Section 2B: Investment Discipline &
Tactics 127 Discipline and Reading 127 How to Lose the Winner's Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133 Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing
Philosophy 135 Contrarianism 135 Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun
140 God Is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143 Beware of Linear
Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146 How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory
He Says Guides Him 148 The Horse Whisperers 151 Mr. Market Is a
Manic-Depressive 155 Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159 Filthy Lucre
159 The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162 Jewelry Is
a Girl's Best Friend 165 Section 2E: Market Predictions 169 First Class on
the Titanic 169 "It's a Bull Market, You Know . . ." 171 Beware the
Conventional Wisdom . . . 175 Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180 "Even Monkeys Fall from Trees"
183 Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188 Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197 Buy Hong Kong 197 Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204 China: "The New Emperors" and the Risk/Reward Equation
208 How Fast Is China Really Growing? 212 China Tales 215 A China
Traveler's Tales 218 China Cooling, Us Heating 221 Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225 India for the
1990s 228 Great Expectations 231 India: You Have to Go There to Understand
234 Section 3C: Japan 237 More on Japan 237 Long Trips 240 Japan Inc. Wants
a Higher Yen 242 Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245 Section 3D:
Europe, Middle East, Africa 249 In the Eye of the Storm 249 You Gotta Own
Some Germany 253 Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259 South America for the Nineties 259 No More
Siestas 263 Argentina: The Magic Show 268 Buy Mexico and Brazil 271 Case
Study: Peru 275 Mexico Will Make It 278 Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle?
282 Brazil: An Act of Faith 286 Section 3F: East Asia 289 The Best-Managed
Country in the World 289 Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293 Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299 Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302 Section 3G:
Emerging Markets Roundup 307 A Bigger, Faster World 307 Jewel in the
Portfolio 311 Section 4: Characters and Culture 315 Section 4A: Lunches
with Luminaries 317 Investment Alchemy 317 Lunch with the Global Investor
321 Vanity Fair 325 Heroine Worship 327 Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir
John 330 Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333 The Summer of 83 333 The Trigger
Comes Back for Lunch 336 U3 or "Many Shall Be Restored That Are Now Fallen
and . . ." 339 The Trigger Finds an Arb 341 The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347 A Country of His Own 350 Talking
Technology with Jim the Trigger 354 Section 5: Travelogues 359 Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364 Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370 Japanese Landscapes 373 The Snows of
Kilimanjaro 377 Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381 Section 6:
Books and Letters 385 Section 6A: Book Reviews 387 "Groupthink" and What to
Do about It 387 Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391 The Alchemy of
Finance 395 I Wish We Didn't Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398 Noise
and Babble 401 Section 6B: Biggs's Reading List 405 Too Much to Read 405
"Books, We Know, Are a Substantial World . . ." 408