Arvid Aulin

Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles (eBook, PDF)

An Essential Extension of Macroeconomics Leading to Improved Predictions of Data

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• Seitenzahl: 116
• Erscheinungstermin: 6. Dezember 2012
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9783642957383
• Artikelnr.: 53381648

Inhaltsangabe

I. The Mathematical Tools.- 1. The Hamilton-Jacobi Theory.- 2. Maximization of Accumulating Utility.- II. The Lucas Growth Theory and Its Generalization to Business Cycles.- 3. The Lucas Growth Theory.- 4. Generalization to Include Business Cycles.- III. The General Theory of Economic Growth and Business Cycles.- 5. The Basic Growth Paths.- 6. The Basic Business Cycles.- IV. The Basic Business Cycles as the Causal Part of Business Cycles.- 7. The Predictive Power of the Basic Cycles Compared With That of the Stochastic Models: Ordinary Business Cycles.- 8. Conclusions and Challenges.- 9. The Dynamics of Anomalous Basic Business Cycles and Its Quantitative Verification.- V. The Effects of Nonmaterial Values and Other Ignored Factors Upon Economic Growth.- 10. Primary Causal Factors of Economic Growth.- 11. The Growth Effects of Savings Rate.- VI. An Alternative Vision of the Stochastic Element in Business Cycles.- 12. Stochastic Shocks as Perturbations Superposed Upon the Basic Business Cycles.- 13. Final Result: Both the Stochastic and Nonstochastic BBC Versions Predict Better Than Any of the Models Based On Stochastic Optimization.- References.- Appendix 1: The Dependence of the Predicted Anomalous Correlations on Savings Rate.- Appendix 2: Numerical Tables.